The Russians have made 7 (not 5) attempts to force a crossing of the Donetsk River, all within a 5 mile long stretch of river bank. The last 2 were stopped before they reached the river bank by accurate Ukr artillery fire and UAV strikes. All of these attacks were attempts to surround the city of Severodonetsk from the north.
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At least 2 of those attempts actually managed to get troops across the river before their pontoon bridges were destroyed behind them. 1 BTG is confirmed as being entirely wiped out (as mentioned previously), at least 4 more BTG's from 2 different brigades are badly damaged and withdrawing northeast. Those units are being replaced in the Russian line by rebuilt elements of the Russian 90th Guards Tank Division.
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All Russian forward movement in the area southwest of Izium has halted and elements of 1st Guards Tank Army are repositioning to the north in an attempt to stop the repeated Ukr attacks on their flank and supply lines as far north as Kharkiv. While the Ukr did not close the Pinch at Izium it is now a choke point under almost constant Ukr artillery fire from 2 directions. There are still at least 7 BTG's below the Pinch.
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All of the Russian units operating on the Eastern front are composite units made up of the survivors of previously damaged BTG's. In some places, notably around Popsana, they include Russian Naval Infantry, ABN, regular army, and conscripted DNR militias all fighting in the same areas. And all use different communications networks. Naval Infantry radios can't contact ABN radios and neither can contact the DNR militias or the regular Russian army units, all operating in the same area.
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There is no Russian movement on the Southern Front at all. But there are a lot Ukr partisans operating behind the Russian line where Russian units released from the Siege of Mariupol are trying to rebuild.
The Kherson Bridgehead continues to slowly shrink, ever so slowly. The Russians dug in, but they do not seem to be replacing losses inside of the Bridgehead itself. Instead they're just shortening their line in sections when they no longer have the manpower to hold those sections.
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All along the lines from Kherson all the way to Kharkiv the Ukr is slowly replacing regular units battered from months of killing Russians with fresh National Guard battalions and Territorial Defense (TD) brigades. Meanwhile Ukr Mechanized and Tank brigades are flying around the front from one place to another, stopping Russian attacks and raiding deep into Russian held areas.
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Ukrainian 92nd and 93rd Mechanized Brigades on the Eastern Front in particular have a very high rate of movement and striking power far beyond any normal western mechanized brigade. Both brigades have sustained operational tempos that would have been unthinkable prior to Feb 24 by any army that isn't the US Army.
Thread ends.
@Render Thanks for these. Much appreciated. 👍
@Render thanks. it's good to hear these updates.
I'm sure this took a lot of investigation/verification - THANK YOU 🙏🏽
@Render Thank you ❤️
@Render Thank you. This represents so much work, including the info rich summations. That’s quite a gift to deploy on behalf of those of us wishing to be informed. Super impressive - and super grateful for all the brain cells you’re unleashing on this. Thank you!
Great synopsis of the war in Ukraine, Render. I always look forward to your updates. I hope those new to CoSo are paying attention.
Thank you very much for your work to keep us updated with rational, accurate information. I expect to see bits and pieces of this in two weeks time in the media. 😎
@Render thanks for your efforts. I look forward to these updates so much. It feels like most information that is around is behind you by days.
@Render Thank you
@Render so incredible have this info. Thank you!
@Render Thank you for the update!
@Render Thank you for the update!
@Render
<grins ear to ear>Thank you.
@Render maybe a dumb question... but here goes. Would it be a reasonable theory to assume there are reps on the ground in Ukraine from other western countries? I just figured there would be a small contingent helping Ukraine forces with intel, local coordination, etc... but wasn't sure?
@gregoinc That is a reasonable assumption.
We know that US Army had a training contingent in Ukraine prior to Feb 24th that was pulled out in a hurry.
We know that Boris Johnson had an SAS protection detail when he visited Kyiv.
Beyond that we'll probably have to wait for the records to be declassified for confirmation. Or some nimrod journalist leaking it for the clickbait money.
@Render Thank you as always for the time and effort you put into the updates! 💙💛
@Render Advantage for UKR-still scratching my head on this as im sure most western analysts are too.
South of Severodonetsk the arrival of Ukr's 17th Tank Brigade in the line brought a halt to Russian attacks as far south as Popsana at the north end of the Donbas Line. Russians tried 2 more attacks on the Donbas Line itself, with all too predictable results. Both failed with heavy losses.
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