this is interesting. lichtman says harris will win because she has 8 keys, the bare minimum. but biden dropping out would've resulted in a loss because of the INCUMBENCY key, not because of the primary key. harris still lost the incumbency key, and biden already had the primary key. so which key did harris gain by becoming the nominee that turned that loss into a win?
@Kinnison oh for sure, but given people's propensity to want to vote for the winner, i wonder to what extent these predictions become self-fulfilling prophecies? maybe by predicting trump he motivated would-be couch potatoes to turn out for trump. maybe by calling it for kamala while the polls are agonizingly close or even leaning red, he's hoping to motivate unlikely voters to show up for dems.
@dietotaku
That is always the key. Motivating the unlikely voters. Sadly it is never about policy for them, but vibes, and gut checks, and wanting to bother trying to vote with all the types of voter suppression out there
3 hour wait times, and lack of early voting, or mail in voting are by design to suppress votes