this is interesting. lichtman says harris will win because she has 8 keys, the bare minimum. but biden dropping out would've resulted in a loss because of the INCUMBENCY key, not because of the primary key. harris still lost the incumbency key, and biden already had the primary key. so which key did harris gain by becoming the nominee that turned that loss into a win?
okaaaay but he predicted trump in 2016 and trump did NOT win the popular vote that year. it would be more accurate to say the keys predict the electoral college winner, and he was only wrong in 2000 because SCOTUS stopped the recount and handed it to bush because cronyism.
@Kinnison oh for sure, but given people's propensity to want to vote for the winner, i wonder to what extent these predictions become self-fulfilling prophecies? maybe by predicting trump he motivated would-be couch potatoes to turn out for trump. maybe by calling it for kamala while the polls are agonizingly close or even leaning red, he's hoping to motivate unlikely voters to show up for dems.
That is always the key. Motivating the unlikely voters. Sadly it is never about policy for them, but vibes, and gut checks, and wanting to bother trying to vote with all the types of voter suppression out there
3 hour wait times, and lack of early voting, or mail in voting are by design to suppress votes
@dietotaku
TBH. Lichtman is the latest to find reasons for predicting. But we are also talking about 13 Elections since the creation of Presidential primaries to base it on. most were landslides and never in doubt on election day. 2000 and 2016 were aberrations only because of craziness of the Electoral college that do not reflect the popular vote.
grain of salt. vote like democracy depends on it
#politics