this is interesting. lichtman says harris will win because she has 8 keys, the bare minimum. but biden dropping out would've resulted in a loss because of the INCUMBENCY key, not because of the primary key. harris still lost the incumbency key, and biden already had the primary key. so which key did harris gain by becoming the nominee that turned that loss into a win?
TBH. Lichtman is the latest to find reasons for predicting. But we are also talking about 13 Elections since the creation of Presidential primaries to base it on. most were landslides and never in doubt on election day. 2000 and 2016 were aberrations only because of craziness of the Electoral college that do not reflect the popular vote.
grain of salt. vote like democracy depends on it
That is always the key. Motivating the unlikely voters. Sadly it is never about policy for them, but vibes, and gut checks, and wanting to bother trying to vote with all the types of voter suppression out there
3 hour wait times, and lack of early voting, or mail in voting are by design to suppress votes