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Five Thirty Eight has lost some of its luster due to the decline in poll reliability, i.e. underestimating Democratic strength.

That said, 538 has winning the electoral college 276-262 over .

Assuming the underestimation continues, Biden is in pretty good shape, despite the pundits.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2

From : Jury finds Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) guilty of bribery etc. Senator Democratic Majority Leader Chuck Schumer calls on Menendez to resign.

cnn.com/2024/07/16/politics/bo

From :

Elon Musk says he's going to donate $45 million a month to a super PAC.

Given the return on his $44 billion purchase of Twitter, this will probably result in the same return on investment. Zero.

cnn.com/2024/07/16/business/mu

It appears that the Lester Holt interview with President will be available on YouTube at 9 PM EDT.

youtube.com/watch?v=iUSmk1SqEu

General reminder about party convention weeks ... Presidential candidates usually get a temporary bump in the polls in the days following their conventions, because they've been on TV non-stop.

So if goes up in the polls next week, don't stress about it.

will get the same bump after the Democratic convention.

reports that RFK Jr. met with today in Milwaukee to discuss "national unity."

Read into that what you will.

From : picks Ohio senator J.D. Vance as his running mate.

(Hopefully he knows how to get out of a noose ...)

wapo.st/3W15w7H

From : Rubio and Burgum say they were told they're not the VP pick.

I've mentioned before that there's a roadside stand near my house that peddles merchandise. I never see any customers, just the vendor.

Given yesterday's events, I drove past the stand this morning around 11:45 AM or so to see if the attack might have created some customers.

Nope. Not one.

Here's the White House YouTube channel link to watch President 's national address at 8:00 PM EDT / 5:00 PM PDT about yesterday's assassination attempt.

youtube.com/watch?v=5W2vMYxF4B

President will address the nation at 8 PM EDT tonight regarding the assassination attempt.

President addressed the nation in the last hour about the assassination attempt. Runs 3 1/2 minutes.

youtube.com/watch?v=KHFiz7-OnJ

Idle speculation, trotting out my Poli Sci degree ...

The Republican National Convention starts tomorrow in Milwaukee. What if the assassin had succeeded?

There's been so much speculation about how the DNC could overturn Biden's nomination at the convention. What would the RNC do this week if they'd lost ?

Being monarchical these days, I suspect they'd just nominate Don Jr. What about other candidates?

But it certainly would have been chaos. Postpone or keep going.

As an aside ... In response to the assassination attempt, Elon Musk just announced on Zombie Twitter that he's endorsing . 🙄

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Stephen Smith 🇺🇦

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