McCarthy is *probably* about to be voted in as Speaker.
I personally advise focusing on the enormous damage he and his party have already sustained in the four day fiasco, and the massive rifts and resulting weaknesses it exposed in the R caucus - rather than on the fact of him finally managing to stagger over the line.
Some R opposition has indeed surfaced to the MAGA rules package. Without that, the whole McCarthy "deal" falls apart.
My guess? Rs are too desperate to end the Speaker debacle to stop the rules package. But a bunch of them are furious about it.
If they let it pass they're postponing the next party crackup. But the party is even more divided. That's why one R has already reminded Kevin about discharge petitions - which could bypass the rules package.
Twitter is being flooded with people declaring that McCarthy's "concessions" promised the MAGA maniacs he'd abolish social security and Medicare and default on the debt ceiling.
That's not how government works. They can't pass laws without the Senate. Many Rs and all Ds oppose a default. If Kevin refuses to let a bipartisan bill to the floor, he can be bypassed via discharge petition - as one R rep already publicly reminded him.
I don't have the energy to get into this with people on twitter.
So Kevin agreed to *policy pledges* in a "deal" to make him Speaker... which of course has no binding power, and which is going to create a huge future battle inside the R caucus.
Particularly since R hawks can force a bipartisan bypass to the floor through a discharge petition.
Corrupt, servile, MAGA-enabling... and stupid.
Center-left academic type. Generally pissed about the state of the world but I know none of our endless crises are actually new because I'm a historian.