@voltronic @Render ITA IMO this has been a deliberate handtying of Ukr to try to suck Russia's money dry.. but it's stupid as hell and doomed to fail
@TrueBloodNet There is something to be said about Ukraine being nickel and dimed on support.
There is also the possibility that had all of the support that Ukraine has already received, been promised, or is already in the pipeline arrived all at once, that that would have been a red line that Putin could not have ignored.
@Render @voltronic Maybe, but the fact that Russia can continue to resupply, and hit and run across the border is strategically a losing game for Ukr. Biden could have instead gotten their promise (backed by built in repercussions) not to attack Russian cities but OK'd infrastructure like railroad lines, airport runways, bridges etc. and the ability to pursue fleeing Russian troops despite country lines.
@voltronic Ukraine has fired missile into Russia several times. Ukraine has also sent troops into Russia at least four different times.
If there was a red line there for Putin it didn't mean much.
@voltronic I believe that the initial hold up was two fold.
The first HIMARS vehicles delivered did not have ATACMS capability (at the request of the original purchasing nation). Later HIMARS vehicle deliveries did have that capability and are what led me to consider ATACMS as a possibility for the first Kerch bridge attack.
I suspect that the later hold up was more about US ATACMS inventory being low than about Ukraine attacking Russia (which it has done several times since the war started).
@Render
Yes, I know there have been small incursions / attacks by UKR forces. But have any of those been carried out with long-range precision munitions? Because I get the sense that the US is trying to characterize that as something on another level that might trigger a worse response from Putin.
What I'm saying if he's going to continually commit war crimes on a daily if not hourly basis, it might be effective to have a more direct threat closer to home as deterrent.
@Render
In other words, I'm agreeing with you that supposed a red line doesn't seem to exist or at least we haven't seen one yet. So if it's not a supply issue, then why not give UKR the capability to hit harder and farther?
The only thing Putin can do that's worse than what he's doing is nuclear, chemical, or biological. And he knows that NATO will become directly involved if he goes there.
@Render
Also, so what if Ukr *does* strike beyond its borders? Maybe the next time a Russian missile hits an apartment building in Kyiv, a Russian airfield or other strategic target goes boom. Works in Israel, at least temporarily.
Putin needs to feel more pain from his decisions. It's one thing to throw your troops and armor into the grinder, and be somewhat dissociated from them. It's another thing to be under threat you'll be hit back in your home territory.