Meanwhile, and are, once again, at a critical point in their war. Once again, Phillips Oโ€™Brien has done excellent work in reporting on the ground.

TL:DR - The war has its struggles - the commitment from its partners, the overall tiredness of physically being tired and tired of the same leadership rhetoric. However, most Ukrainians have no doubt they can beat the Russians in the war, and are winning in logistics and innovation.

Enjoy.

open.substack.com/pub/phillips

For the first time in this war Ukrainian forces not only successfully crossed the Dnipro River but also the Konka River behind, establishing a permanent bridge head on the south/east side near Kozachi Laheri.

All Russian attempts to dislodge Ukrainians failed and the Russian recon unit initially investigating the Ukrainian landing was most likely destroyed.

Source: (((Tendar)))

en.thebell.io/russia-is-prepar

Russia is Preparing For A Long War

Good rundown of domestic political moves within Russia and how they play out in continuing the war.

You can build and sell virtually anything to the Russian government.

In political terms, โ€œeternal warโ€ is increasingly becoming a cornerstone of the Kremlinโ€™s narrative. Putin has no other vision to offer.

parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, the UKโ€™s Chief of the Defence Staff, the senior professional officer in the UK military, gave testimony to the UK Parliamentโ€™s Defence Committee.

He tries to describe what the Ukrainians are doingโ€”and he calls their tactics: โ€œstarve, stretch and strikeโ€

Sounds a lot like what @Render calls โ€œbite and hold.โ€

H/T: Phillips Oโ€™Brien

An excellent thread on setting realistic media expectations for the counteroffensive.

TL:DR - The counteroffensive is not failing. It was never supposed to be a victory march โ€” itโ€™s a complex nonlinear process that requires time.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/167

I took a bit of a holiday look-away from real social media and .

Lukashenko may or may not be dead. Either way, Belarus is not a functional state. I have a tough time believing they could organize a state funeral, let alone an attack into northern .

Biden won the debt deal. Thatโ€™s that.

Hope you all are enjoying loved ones and practicing some self-care.

Itโ€™s now 11:15 PM in . Needless to say, itโ€™s been a wild day over there, and that usually leads to a wild night over there. Keep eyes peeled. Trust and verify.

youtu.be/VA47jm9weYU

Incredible interview with Kyrylo Budanov, the head of military intelligence for Ukraine. This was released less than 24 hours ago, so itโ€™s probably still fresh.

TL:DR -
Ukraine will win, territorial integrity back to 1991 borders.
Putin likely wonโ€™t survive, Russia in its current state wonโ€™t survive (Dagestan, Chechnya/Ichkeria)
The biggest problem post-war will be the millions in the east who have swallowed years of Kremlin propaganda.

Hell of a 48 hours to come in
- Orc bombers in the air tonight
- Prigozhin flooding the zone with shit that the offensive has started
- fallout from the false flag attack

Yesterday was the 37th anniversary of the disaster. Totally fascinated by it and there's a non-zero chance that the events in stem from the results of the disaster.

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