#Politics A reminder why last night's #Iowa caucus is irrelevant ...
Total number of registered voters in Iowa: 2,203,718
Total number of registered active Republican voters: 594,533
Total number of votes cast in the caucus: 110,298
Total number of votes for #Trump: 56,260 (51% of votes cast)
Only 18.6% of Republicans turned out last night. Barely more than half of them voted for Trump.
Much ado about nothing.
(Data source: Iowa Secretary of State)
Thank you Stephen. You’ve lightened my heavy heart. Nothing like facts.
@LnzyHou I worked for a fringe Democratic candidate in the 1991-1992 presidential election, and then on a presidential election reform project in 1995. (Clinton sabotaged it.) Those two experiences left me with the realization that IA and NH are pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things.
@WordsmithFL @LnzyHou I would suggest reading what @driftglass wrote today ass essentially nearly all the votes were for Trump - just in different disguises.
https://driftglass.blogspot.com/2024/01/irrational-numbers.html
@NorthernInvader I read it at your request. I really don't understand the point he's making. Will most of them vote for #Trump in the general? Probably.
But the larger view, which the author ignores, is that only 18% of active registered Republicans bothered to vote. Only 9% voted for Trump, meaning the others are not that strongly committed to him.
Trump on the ballot in the general will help Iowa Dems achieve some upsets down-ticket.
Unless Trump's sclerotic arteries intervene, he's going to be the GOP nominee. My point is just that Iowa is insignificant and we shouldn't be giving it much credence as a bellweather for anything.
If something happened to Trump, then the GOP probably would have an open convention to choose a nominee. When we get to the larger states, we'll have a better idea of who might win that. (My guess is Haley.)
@WordsmithFL @LnzyHou @driftglass
I gather that what he's saying is that it's pointless to assign percentages as if the party is divided.
@NorthernInvader @WordsmithFL @LnzyHou That's about right.
@WordsmithFL @NorthernInvader @driftglass
I also read it and share your confusion Stephen.