#Politics A reminder why last night's #Iowa caucus is irrelevant ...
Total number of registered voters in Iowa: 2,203,718
Total number of registered active Republican voters: 594,533
Total number of votes cast in the caucus: 110,298
Total number of votes for #Trump: 56,260 (51% of votes cast)
Only 18.6% of Republicans turned out last night. Barely more than half of them voted for Trump.
Much ado about nothing.
(Data source: Iowa Secretary of State)
Thank you Stephen. You’ve lightened my heavy heart. Nothing like facts.
@LnzyHou I worked for a fringe Democratic candidate in the 1991-1992 presidential election, and then on a presidential election reform project in 1995. (Clinton sabotaged it.) Those two experiences left me with the realization that IA and NH are pretty insignificant in the grand scheme of things.
@WordsmithFL @LnzyHou I would suggest reading what @driftglass wrote today ass essentially nearly all the votes were for Trump - just in different disguises.
https://driftglass.blogspot.com/2024/01/irrational-numbers.html
@WordsmithFL @NorthernInvader @driftglass
I also read it and share your confusion Stephen.
Unless Trump's sclerotic arteries intervene, he's going to be the GOP nominee. My point is just that Iowa is insignificant and we shouldn't be giving it much credence as a bellweather for anything.
If something happened to Trump, then the GOP probably would have an open convention to choose a nominee. When we get to the larger states, we'll have a better idea of who might win that. (My guess is Haley.)
@WordsmithFL @LnzyHou @driftglass
I gather that what he's saying is that it's pointless to assign percentages as if the party is divided.
@NorthernInvader @WordsmithFL @LnzyHou That's about right.
@NorthernInvader I read it at your request. I really don't understand the point he's making. Will most of them vote for #Trump in the general? Probably.
But the larger view, which the author ignores, is that only 18% of active registered Republicans bothered to vote. Only 9% voted for Trump, meaning the others are not that strongly committed to him.
Trump on the ballot in the general will help Iowa Dems achieve some upsets down-ticket.
@LnzyHou @driftglass