I am not an expert. Polls can be useful. They're gauges of perception. That is important, but I don't think Biden was as bad in the debate as some people say. I only listened to the debate, though. However, he's been good other times. Biden is the incumbent, perceived better than Harris, I've heard, won the primaries, and has the financing. Time and energy are being wasted by some Democrats.
Sorry. I had to get these things off my chest.🙂
@nealfig No worries and no apologies necessary.
Polls are as useful as the reality that reflects them. This means the poll’s methodology must reflect that particular race’s demographics of the voters.
Take a swing state like Pennsylvania. 7 million people voted in the last Presidential election. Biden won by 80,555 votes, or 1%.
To accurately *and* precisely poll 7 million people, a pollster must get at least 2,500 people to validate their poll answer. 1/2
@nealfig The logistics of finding this accurate and precise set of voters is quite daunting because
voters are difficult to communicate and validate their choices,
voters have to reflect the demography of the 7 million that will vote, and
it costs time and money to organize 2500 people
That’s just one swing state. Multiply it by the six other swing states - MI, WI, GA, NC, AZ, and NV - by the number of voters who cast votes in 2020, and you’d need about 15,000 voters.
#politics 2/2
@nealfig
Primaries? Like with viable candidates?
I missed that
I did see this weird thing with Biden, Williamson, and the Kennedy whose brain was partially eaten by a worm
@nealfig But it is very important to certain people who don't like to pay taxes, or wages, or for environmental cleanup, who prefer a scared, productive, working populace that doesn't have rights, for us to be _told_ Biden did terrible.
Never mind the guy that just spewed lies and nonsense and hate right next to him.
@nealfig Also, how are the questions worded, in what order are they asked, and do pollsters use multiple variations of the same question to root out inconsistencies?
@nealfig "What is the polling company trying to make you think?"
#Politics #Biden #Polls
"It’s best not to force too much meaning out of a poll. If a race looks like it’s within three or four points in either direction, we should simply say it's a close race and not force the data to say something they can’t. I think pollsters will take this inaccuracy and try to do better. But at some level, we should stop expecting too much out of the polling data."
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-polls-were-mostly-wrong/