John Pavlovitz @johnpavlovitz
(1:49 PM ยท Jul 10, 2024):

"You know who will do just fine if Trump wins?

People like George Clooney, Stephen King, Rob Reiner, Stephen Colbert, and Jon Stewart.

118 days to the election.

This is the wrong fight."

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People calling for it because of polls may be misguided. At best, they're snapshots at a particular time of (a) particular segment(s).

1. Who is asked poll questions?
2. Who answers poll questions? (I don't, usually.)
3. Who is doing the polling?

ยท 3ยท 0ยท 5

"Itโ€™s best not to force too much meaning out of a poll. If a race looks like itโ€™s within three or four points in either direction, we should simply say it's a close race and not force the data to say something they canโ€™t. I think pollsters will take this inaccuracy and try to do better. But at some level, we should stop expecting too much out of the polling data."
scientificamerican.com/article

I am not an expert. Polls can be useful. They're gauges of perception. That is important, but I don't think Biden was as bad in the debate as some people say. I only listened to the debate, though. However, he's been good other times. Biden is the incumbent, perceived better than Harris, I've heard, won the primaries, and has the financing. Time and energy are being wasted by some Democrats.

@nealfig No worries and no apologies necessary.

Polls are as useful as the reality that reflects them. This means the pollโ€™s methodology must reflect that particular raceโ€™s demographics of the voters.

Take a swing state like Pennsylvania. 7 million people voted in the last Presidential election. Biden won by 80,555 votes, or 1%.

To accurately *and* precisely poll 7 million people, a pollster must get at least 2,500 people to validate their poll answer. 1/2

@nealfig The logistics of finding this accurate and precise set of voters is quite daunting because
voters are difficult to communicate and validate their choices,
voters have to reflect the demography of the 7 million that will vote, and
it costs time and money to organize 2500 people

Thatโ€™s just one swing state. Multiply it by the six other swing states - MI, WI, GA, NC, AZ, and NV - by the number of voters who cast votes in 2020, and youโ€™d need about 15,000 voters.

2/2

@nealfig
Primaries? Like with viable candidates?
I missed that
I did see this weird thing with Biden, Williamson, and the Kennedy whose brain was partially eaten by a worm

@nealfig But it is very important to certain people who don't like to pay taxes, or wages, or for environmental cleanup, who prefer a scared, productive, working populace that doesn't have rights, for us to be _told_ Biden did terrible.

Never mind the guy that just spewed lies and nonsense and hate right next to him.

@nealfig Also, how are the questions worded, in what order are they asked, and do pollsters use multiple variations of the same question to root out inconsistencies?

@nealfig "What is the polling company trying to make you think?"

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