538 is so fucked I think.
Not in their methods but in the polls they're using as sources.
There's Rasmussen which has always been and extreme right organization and now what seems like a flood of GQP polling organizations proliferating:
Trafalgar
Insider Advantage
Landmark Communications
Are all run by GQP Trumpists. The CEO of Insider Advantage, Phil Kent, was a member of 2 anti-immigration groups the Southern Poverty Law Center identified as hate groups.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phil_Kent
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@TheAbbotTrithemius yes, Trafalgar is laughable garbage...and 538 hides behind the guise of 'probability', which by their definition is never wrong, because probability isn't a prediction. And everything, literally EVERYTHING is based on cheap, flawed polling data.