A strikingly intelligent maneuver today.
Iran needed to show *some* formal response for the hit on its consulate in Damascus. But this delayed, heavily telegraphed, and ultimately moderate military display establishes it as the cooler head *even if* its action today emboldens other actors to act with greater force.
This isn't a game of chicken; this is military powers trying not to be the one to make *the* tipping point move.
May we all rest a little easier in our armchairs, for now.
Which part?
@MLClark Your response to the post.
@MLClark I am trying to understand how you think this is a moderate response.
Ah, I see.
I'm not a warmonger and I'm not cheering for any military action.
I'm noting the strategy here. Iran waited instead of retaliating immediately after the attack on its consulate and it retaliated by sending a volley of highly telegraphed drones and a missile or so, then stopping.
If the situation were reversed, and a US consulate were hit, what would you consider to be a moderate way for a state to show force to its people & allies, while still affecting "control"?
@MLClark I know that the US has in the past conducted surgical strikes as response to aggression. This seems to be a scatterblast attack on multiple locations and would be harder to describe as a focused strike. It is too early to assess the full meaning of this attack.
I would say it's too early to assess the full *consequences*, but my observation with respect to Iranian political strategy re: retaliatory force has to do with its affection of self-control on the world stage. Iran's actions could still embolden further actions, 100%. For now Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the US among others are clearing the air from one slow-moving volley, not a sustained barrage joined with further acts of aggression.
That's the affectation of "control".
*Saudi Arabia with the Houthi side of things, but it and Jordan's responses also signal how little the region wants to escalate right now. May that sentiment continue, for all our sakes and sanities.
No, not sarcastic. But observing that a country needed to show force on a political level (for its own allies / people) isn't an endorsement of Iran or any state.
What Iran has done has created plausible deniability for its own responsibility in further action in the region. Emboldened Houthi and other operatives may continue their attacks, but Iran gets to claim that it's just responding to an attack on its own, for now.
What seemed sarcastic about that assessment?
@MLClark Some sarcasm is very dry to the point of stating the opposite of what the author thinks. Now I understand your meaning better.
I appreciate the question, and opportunity to clarify, EL Butterfield! This was a stressful uncertainty for us all to witness, and I imagine that nerves will continue to be high for a while.
I'm glad we could talk it out in more "characters" to address the mess of internet tone.
Yep, I read that as the launch is over. This is detritus from the exercise. Jordan and Saudi Arabia's responses also show little regional willingness to do more. (For now.)
@MLClark Taking a dispassionate "big picture" view ... Iran has provided drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. I'm sure the U.S. has had intel agents collecting drone remains in Ukraine for analysis. I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. passed along what it learned to Israel.
CNN coverage suggests Israeli aircraft are shooting down the drones. I suspect Iran knew this attack would be largely ineffective. It's for show and internal propaganda consumption.
Yes, that was my assessment, too.
The general targets seem to reflect this aim as well. Iran gets to show a capacity to reach commercial sectors, the nuclear power plant, and key religious sites if need be, without necessarily causing damage that would compel further direct or allied escalation.
There's plenty here that can be used internally to stoke up a sense of "victory" after having its consulate attacked two weeks ago, while also affecting restraint on the world stage.
@MLClark A former State Dept. negotiator on #CNN says this established the precedent that #Iran will fire on #Israel if Israel goes after any more Revolutionary Guard officers.
This might lead to Israel returning to the old-fashioned method of assassinations, rather than a very public attack on an Iranian asset.
@MLClark Apparently Iran said they were targeting "occupied territories." Perhaps they consider Jerusalem as "occupied" but not other parts of Israel.
Iran seized an Israeli commercial container ship a couple days ago. Overall, it's a lot less so far than one might have feared.
@MLClark
Hope s
If the objective is for more capable missiles to also be used, they'd be launched about 10 minutes before the drones arrive
@MLClark Your assessment is also what it seems like to me. There was a lot of telegraphing --- which, I don't know, is that common in war? It seems odd. And there was/is an element of saving face. But... I don't know, nor feel confident saying, if it was moderate. It seems like maybe it was? and maybe it won't escalate? Maybe?
We are all trading on "maybes" here. 🫂
@MLClark
Yep. We sure are.
@MLClark I am honestly asking, is this meant to be sarcastic?