A strikingly intelligent maneuver today.
Iran needed to show *some* formal response for the hit on its consulate in Damascus. But this delayed, heavily telegraphed, and ultimately moderate military display establishes it as the cooler head *even if* its action today emboldens other actors to act with greater force.
This isn't a game of chicken; this is military powers trying not to be the one to make *the* tipping point move.
May we all rest a little easier in our armchairs, for now.
@MLClark Taking a dispassionate "big picture" view ... Iran has provided drones to Russia for use in Ukraine. I'm sure the U.S. has had intel agents collecting drone remains in Ukraine for analysis. I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. passed along what it learned to Israel.
CNN coverage suggests Israeli aircraft are shooting down the drones. I suspect Iran knew this attack would be largely ineffective. It's for show and internal propaganda consumption.
Yes, that was my assessment, too.
The general targets seem to reflect this aim as well. Iran gets to show a capacity to reach commercial sectors, the nuclear power plant, and key religious sites if need be, without necessarily causing damage that would compel further direct or allied escalation.
There's plenty here that can be used internally to stoke up a sense of "victory" after having its consulate attacked two weeks ago, while also affecting restraint on the world stage.
@MLClark A former State Dept. negotiator on #CNN says this established the precedent that #Iran will fire on #Israel if Israel goes after any more Revolutionary Guard officers.
This might lead to Israel returning to the old-fashioned method of assassinations, rather than a very public attack on an Iranian asset.
@MLClark Apparently Iran said they were targeting "occupied territories." Perhaps they consider Jerusalem as "occupied" but not other parts of Israel.
Iran seized an Israeli commercial container ship a couple days ago. Overall, it's a lot less so far than one might have feared.
@WordsmithFL
Yep, I read that as the launch is over. This is detritus from the exercise. Jordan and Saudi Arabia's responses also show little regional willingness to do more. (For now.)