I knew there was a good reason for going to sleep when I did.
So the Chef goes into exile in Belarus.
His men either get folded into the MoD (which was Putin's plan all along), or get amnesty for their march on Moscow (there is no such thing as amnesty in Russia).
The Chechens get to avoid combat, again.
A lot of fuel, ammo, and combat vehicles get removed from Ukraine.
The Russian air force loses about a dozen aircraft (and crews), at least 2 of which are irreplaceable.
...
Putin knew this was coming, but thought that his behind the scenes chess moves would deter the Chef from actually doing it.
The Chef expected a lot more Russian troops to rally to his side. Mostly from the Russian airborne. But Putin/MoD shoved the rebuilt ABN units deep into the front line at Kremmina, making them unavailable to the Chef.
Does the Chef get to keep his overseas empire?
How badly are Russian Southern front logistics damaged?
Russian 217th Airborne regiment from 98th ABN division is the only Russian ABN unit that publicly rallied to the Chef's side.
But 217th is literally at the tip of the spear north of the Kreminna forest. There was no way they were actually going to join Wagner's march. Not with 90th Guards Tank Division sitting behind them.
That's when I knew it was time to get some sleep.
...
It's very possible that Wagner could have marched into Moscow. There wasn't a lot of combat capable Russian units between them and the city limits.
It's also likely that they could have taken the city and held it.
But once they halted and lost momentum the march was over.
We (and the Ukrainians) now know that the Russian army in Ukraine is a thin and brittle shell, with almost nothing behind them.
If nothing else this confirms what I and a few others have been saying about the Russian army. Everything that they have that can still fight is already in Ukraine. The cupboard at home is bare.
@killingfloorman I'm so spoiled having reliable analysis from @Render
I'll be patient. This story is far from over.
@killingfloorman Welp. It wasn't a coup. It was a mutiny.
I know, subtle distinction there.
Nobody has ever gotten off scot-free for screwing with Putin in Putin's world. That isn't going to change anytime soon, unless he dies.
@Render a subtle but interesting distinction. You don't think he was trying to overthrow Putin, just trying to get a better deal? Makes sense knowing what little I know about Prigozhin
@killingfloorman Yeah, that was one of the few consistencies in his statements.
There is an old Russian tradition of "appealing to the Tsar".
In which Russians think that the Tsar must not know how his officers/leaders are treating the troops/serfs and so a personal appeal to him directly will fix the problem.
But usually the Tsar is well aware of how his officers treat the troops, and doesn't care.
@Render shocked that Putin might not care about how the front line troops are being treated. SHOCKED I tell ya 🤣
@Render @stueytheround do we really know what happened or who is in charge? What was actually in this deal? Will P & Wagner really go to Belarus? Do they trust Belarus guy? Do Wagner’s forces still fight in Ukraine? I have no idea what is happening now it’s like a spinning ride of chaos gping in circles. Who controls Russian armies now? I am so confused. Ahhh. 😫🤷♀️
@redsheri1 @Render "Tune in next week to find out on *SOAP*"
@stueytheround @Render I can’t take the spinning. Let me off this gravitron ride. My head hurts. 🤷♀️👩🦰
@redsheri1 Snowdon and Tara Reade have seized power. Putin is out 🤣
Putin remains in charge.
The Chef will probably go to Belarus, at least for a little while. His men will not.
What's left of Wagner will get folded into the suicidal assault battalions, with the other ex-convicts.
Putin controls the Russian military and it appears that Shoigu and Gersimov get to keep their posts.
'Zat help?
@Render @stueytheround yes very much so thanks for that clarification and predictions. 😬👩🦰
@Render @stueytheround the part I am struggling with is the retreat. So P & Wagner get nothing out of this deal except to live? Wasn’t their whole purpose to remove those two Germiskov & Shoigu? So basically they didn’t have the support they were hoping for to storm Moscow & retreated suddenly right? Failed coup entirely & they get nothing but they get to live maybe & they made Putin look vulnerable & weak. 🤷♀️
@Render @redsheri1 @stueytheround Wow. Seems like quite the reversal of fortunes. A serious attempt to take Moscow or at least storm the MoD seemed inevitable this morning.
@stueytheround it's easy for me to fall into the trap of wanting/expecting instant analysis. This situation is so complex it could take months to unwind and then further months to understand it.
@Render