I knew there was a good reason for going to sleep when I did.
So the Chef goes into exile in Belarus.
His men either get folded into the MoD (which was Putin's plan all along), or get amnesty for their march on Moscow (there is no such thing as amnesty in Russia).
The Chechens get to avoid combat, again.
A lot of fuel, ammo, and combat vehicles get removed from Ukraine.
The Russian air force loses about a dozen aircraft (and crews), at least 2 of which are irreplaceable.
...
Putin knew this was coming, but thought that his behind the scenes chess moves would deter the Chef from actually doing it.
The Chef expected a lot more Russian troops to rally to his side. Mostly from the Russian airborne. But Putin/MoD shoved the rebuilt ABN units deep into the front line at Kremmina, making them unavailable to the Chef.
Does the Chef get to keep his overseas empire?
How badly are Russian Southern front logistics damaged?
Russian 217th Airborne regiment from 98th ABN division is the only Russian ABN unit that publicly rallied to the Chef's side.
But 217th is literally at the tip of the spear north of the Kreminna forest. There was no way they were actually going to join Wagner's march. Not with 90th Guards Tank Division sitting behind them.
That's when I knew it was time to get some sleep.
...
It's very possible that Wagner could have marched into Moscow. There wasn't a lot of combat capable Russian units between them and the city limits.
It's also likely that they could have taken the city and held it.
But once they halted and lost momentum the march was over.
We (and the Ukrainians) now know that the Russian army in Ukraine is a thin and brittle shell, with almost nothing behind them.
If nothing else this confirms what I and a few others have been saying about the Russian army. Everything that they have that can still fight is already in Ukraine. The cupboard at home is bare.
@Render This last 24 hours has been *really* bloody confusing. One moment Putin is on his arse, then he isn't, or is he?
@Render @stueytheround do we really know what happened or who is in charge? What was actually in this deal? Will P & Wagner really go to Belarus? Do they trust Belarus guy? Do Wagner’s forces still fight in Ukraine? I have no idea what is happening now it’s like a spinning ride of chaos gping in circles. Who controls Russian armies now? I am so confused. Ahhh. 😫🤷♀️
Putin remains in charge.
The Chef will probably go to Belarus, at least for a little while. His men will not.
What's left of Wagner will get folded into the suicidal assault battalions, with the other ex-convicts.
Putin controls the Russian military and it appears that Shoigu and Gersimov get to keep their posts.
'Zat help?
@Render @redsheri1 @stueytheround Wow. Seems like quite the reversal of fortunes. A serious attempt to take Moscow or at least storm the MoD seemed inevitable this morning.