If this turns out to be accurate, hoo booby.
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@LiberalLibrarian Pretty solid methodology going with prediction surveys instead of polls (that skew D) or prediction markets (that skew R)
@mikeharmanos hmmm. interesting. This is good to know. I'm very leery of things like that.
@LiberalLibrarian As well you should! It is social science, after all. Take it from a practicing social scientist - at best, people like me are similar to the parable of the blind men describing an elephant.
@LiberalLibrarian Also pretty consistent with Good Judgment’s question. 39% likely he wins, 61% likely he doesn’t.
https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2851-will-donald-trump-be-reelected-as-president-of-the-us-in-2024/crowd_forecast