The Big Red One is in the house.
Abrams tanks of 2nd Battalion, 34th Armored Regiment, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, with MAPS navigation system.
Drawsko Pomorskie, Poland.
That's what those C-17's were flying in. The transporter-trailers were probably already in Germany.
They're going to need a lot of white and dark green paint.
Drawsko Pomorskie, Poland is about 120 miles west of Warsaw. Far from the Ukrainian/Belarusian borders. That's just a temporary marshaling yard. They aren't staying there.
Somebody in Finland saw the same patterns that I did a month ago.
As usual I disagree with some of the red arrow conclusions, but agree with the overall. These are the Little and Middle Pincers of an encirclement maneuver.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: mobilization of reservists of 18-60 y.o. starts today according to Presidential decree. (might be too late, but worth the effort anyway)
All Ukrainian citizens in Russia are warned to leave Russia (too late, those people are already hostages).
All Russian diplomats in Ukraine have burned their papers and left the country.
Ukrainian Parliament votes to give permission for the right to self defense and for civilians to carry firearms.
Full battalion of T-72B3 on the E105 highway (Belgorod, Russia to Kharkiv, Ukraine).
This is not a "Battalion Tactical Group". It is a tank battalion.
This is the fourth such battalion that we've seen on that stretch of highway in the last 24hrs.
Referring back to the Finnish analysts map we can see that the E105 highway is nowhere near the Russian occupied zones of Ukraine.
Full salvos of 122mm artillery and 122m rockets landing in Ukraine north of Crimea.
Time/date of this video is unconfirmed but reportedly today in the vicinity of Mariupol.
What can be confirmed is that these are not Russian regulars. This is a separatist armored battalion with elderly T-64's and BMP-1's. Neither vehicle is used by the Russian Army but large numbers are held in reserve stockpiles.
Mariupol is on the coast of the Sea of Azov and despite heavy fighting in 2014-15 remains in Ukrainian hands (for now).
Apologies for the (cut-n-paste) all caps to follow.
NOTAM over Kharkiv, Ukraine up to 16,500 ft "POSSIBILITY OF INTERCEPTION FOR OFFENDERS."
E) TEMPO RESTRICTED AREA CENTERED ON 49580N 036243E
WITH RADIUS 10 KM ACTIVATED.
FLIGHTS OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT ARE PROHIBITED.
FLIGHTS OF THE AIRCRAFT WITH MAXIMUM TAKE OFF WEIGHT
*That's above shoulder fired SAM and AA gun range. But well within all other SAM ranges.
The Russians probably aren't expecting either Ukraine or NATO to fly air missions in the Kharkiv area. But they will be launching air and artillery strikes of their own on the Ukrainian defenders.
There is now a 10 mile traffic jam on the E105 highway to Kharkiv from Russia. And it's all Russian Army vehicles.
In western military terms that's the MSR (Main Supply Route).
Russian Mech Infantry battle group in Krasnaya Yaruga, 9 miles from Ukraine's border and about 10 miles north of the MSR.
This is likely a flank protection group for the MSR, but could also/or be intended for a drive on the city of Sumy, Ukraine.
The airports in Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhya that are closed until morning have their runways blocked by tractors in order to prevent Russia’s paratroopers from landing there.
Here's the Russian NOTAM flight restriction area.
Heavy and sustained artillery just west of Mariupol.
In western terms that's called Prep Fire.
Video posted tonight from Crimea. Per video author, caption says, "Hundreds of vehicles go to the border with Ukraine."
In the video is a Russian Naval Infantry unit. Surprisingly the 2nd vehicle seen in the video is an elderly PT-76 amphibious tank. Supposedly the Russian Navy only has about 30 of those remaining in service.
Traffic jams are reported in Crimea on the only road leading north into the rest of Ukraine.
(for once the TicTok music is fitting the occasion)
CNN reporting 90% of Ukrainian government web sites now down due to cyber strikes.
NOTAM closing the entire Ukrainian airspace.
Pretty sure this one is from the Ukrainian government.
China MFA SPOX statement on Ukraine should put to rest any questions about PRC views on the crisis. To summarize:
1) It's the U.S's fault
2) The U.S. is exacerbating the issue
3) China will never join sanctions
4) China's position is not contradictory
Russia's Speznaz attack on Ukraine Crimea border posts, more missiles onto Mariupol, and lights out in major cities.
This, Mariupol, is not the main attack. It has objectives, but it is a diversion from the center of gravity. What the Germans called the schwerpunkt (main emphasis) is elsewhere.
It's designed to draw Ukrainian reserves away from that schwerpunkt.
Secretary-General of UN: Mr. Putin, stop your troops.
Putin presidential address right now.
I'll go ahead and translate Putin's response before he makes it...
"No."
*checks watch*
Russian bomber launched PGM's should start arriving on Ukrainian targets within the next half hour to hour, depending on launch points and missile types.
Kramatorsk air base in Ukraine is getting hit right now. That will be the missiles.
Live stream from Kharkov, Ukraine.
Looks like the camera view is from west of the city looking east. Not sure.
MRLS barrage. Location unknown, camera view from behind the launchers.
Missile strikes reported around Kyiv.
Kerch Strait is closed. Russian tugboats and other small ships blocking passage under Putin's bridge.
Previous MRLS barrage reportedly on or around the E105 highway inside of Ukraine.
Missile strikes on Odessa, on the Black Sea coast.
The time in Ukraine is around 5:30am.
That the preliminaries have begun over the last two hours is proof that the Russians have elected to go in in daylight hours.
Artillery tempo increasing around Kharkhiv.
Expecting artillery strikes from Belarus soon.
Repeated missile strikes on the military airport in Kyiv.
The last two cargo planes to fly into that airport are Turkish A-400's, and they are still there.
Wanna see NATO invoke Article 5? That's how you do it.
Still waiting on confirmation of ground fighting in or around Kyiv. If so it's Spesnaz and/or pro-Russian Ukrainians, not paratroopers.
Maybe confirmed (maybe not) that Russia shot down two Turkish made UAV's in Ukrainian service.
UAV shoot down confirmed.
Fighting in and around Kyiv confirmed.
Odessa strike appears to have taken out most or all of Ukraine's tiny navy.
More bombers reported airborne over Russia.
Most of those are coming from the Engels-2 air base. The range of their missiles means that they have only to take off, reach launch altitude, and fire, before returning to the base landing pattern.
It appears both Mariupol and Odessa being subjected to some form of amphib operation.
1st Guards Tank Army at the gates of Kharkov.
Increasing reports of Russian paratroopers fighting in Kyiv (do the Russians have stealth paratrooper delivery aircraft?) More likely is these are elements of 45th Guards Spetsnaz who have been in place and waiting for days if not longer.
Still no sign of artillery or troop movements from the Belarus border (despite Marco Rubio's claims).
But I am expecting that sooner rather than later.
Kyiv getting pounded with missile strikes.
o7 @Render see the power plant go up?
Like Lebanon, big big explosion.
So fucking sad.
Twatter @lacuda @Render