Another combined arms breakthrough formation.
Company of T-72B3's, two with mine plows attached. TOS-1 thermobaric rocket launcher and reload vehicle. Combat engineer vehicle (also acts as a mine plow). Mine laying vehicle (oddball in this formation speaks volumes about the intended mission). BMP-3 command APC.
That's a nice start. Assuming the Germans even allow combat operations from their bases.
Now quit screwing around and send the entire squadrons.
Full tank battalion from 4th Guards Division on the move (heading west). Geolocated just 1 mile from the Ukrainian border. Every third tank has mine plows attached. They all have their 50cal top guns attached.
The tanks are brand new T-80BVM models.
Geolocation map for the previous toot. Red marker is where those tanks were when video was made...
UK 45 Commando Royal Marines now in Poland.
Putin orders Russian military to conduct peacekeeping operations in Donesk and Luhansk.
"peacekeeping..."
*cough*
Ukraine (finally) begins moving its army.
Very blurry video of an unidentified tank unit leaving Kiev and heading for the Belograd region. I'm assuming it's from the 72nd Mech Brigade.
I'm also hoping that it's from 72nd Mech or one of the new Reserve Tank brigades.
Because...
A: They're moving deeper into the Big and Middle Pincer traps.
B: Ukrainian 1st Tank Brigade is all that holds the northern flank inside of the Middle Pincer.
The Expeditionary Sea Base USS Hershel "Woody" Williams is in the Adriatic with Truman Carrier Group.
Special Forces own personal navy.
Israel's FM said today that "We will do the right thing according to our set of values. But, we also have a border with Russia in Syria".
Unusually large columns of military vehicles and hardware are moving through Donetsk, largest city of self-proclaimed republic in eastern Ukraine.
The Biden admin has ordered all remaining State Department personnel out of Ukraine. The embassy had previously relocated from Kyiv to the western city of Lviv. Now they are shifting to Poland.
Another full tank battalion on the move, on the same Belograd to Kharkiv road as the previous tank battalion.
This one with T-80BU's, plus two extra tank companies, and a single battery of 152mm SP guns.
A third full T-80U battalion from 4th Guards Tank Division on the Belgogod to Kharkiv road (route E105).
Less than five miles from the Ukrainian border.
Emergency UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine crisis will start in about 20 minutes and will be chaired by Russia, which currently holds the presidency of the Council.
*You no see tanks. Those are not tanks. Those are sightseeing busses.*
Massive Russian Navy Armada Moves Into Place Off Ukraine (updated)
Another company of T-80BVM. Outside of Belgorod 28 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
One has broken down and is being attended to by an armored recovery vehicle.
Slava-class CG Marshal Ustinov (Project 1164 055) sighted 2.5 hours ago to the SE of Crete bearing 97° at 15.8kn.
Option to bear north to the Bosphorous or continue eastbound to Cyprus or Syria.
I haven't heard anything about the Russians asking Turkey for permission for either of the Med located Slava class to enter the straights but that remains a possibility. Syria (Tartus) would be a refuel/resupply stop only.
I'm pretty sure that Russians want to keep those two Slava and their escorts in the Eastern Med, to threaten the USS Truman and the two NATO baby carriers.
Artillery of the 58th CAA in Crimea located about 25 miles from firing range of Ukraine.
They're not parked. They're in movement order. They can be in firing range in about 2hrs (military convoys/task forces on land and at sea move at the speed of their slowest units).
That's a lot of hell getting ready to rain down on the road to the lower Dnieper bridges.
Zelensky has formally ordered the call up of Ukrainian Territorial Defense, Army and Operational reservists.
The Big Red One is in the house.
Abrams tanks of 2nd Battalion, 34th Armored Regiment, 1st Armored Brigade Combat Team, 1st Infantry Division, with MAPS navigation system.
Drawsko Pomorskie, Poland.
That's what those C-17's were flying in. The transporter-trailers were probably already in Germany.
They're going to need a lot of white and dark green paint.
Drawsko Pomorskie, Poland is about 120 miles west of Warsaw. Far from the Ukrainian/Belarusian borders. That's just a temporary marshaling yard. They aren't staying there.
Somebody in Finland saw the same patterns that I did a month ago.
As usual I disagree with some of the red arrow conclusions, but agree with the overall. These are the Little and Middle Pincers of an encirclement maneuver.
General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: mobilization of reservists of 18-60 y.o. starts today according to Presidential decree. (might be too late, but worth the effort anyway)
All Ukrainian citizens in Russia are warned to leave Russia (too late, those people are already hostages).
All Russian diplomats in Ukraine have burned their papers and left the country.
Ukrainian Parliament votes to give permission for the right to self defense and for civilians to carry firearms.
Full battalion of T-72B3 on the E105 highway (Belgorod, Russia to Kharkiv, Ukraine).
This is not a "Battalion Tactical Group". It is a tank battalion.
This is the fourth such battalion that we've seen on that stretch of highway in the last 24hrs.
Referring back to the Finnish analysts map we can see that the E105 highway is nowhere near the Russian occupied zones of Ukraine.
Time/date of this video is unconfirmed but reportedly today in the vicinity of Mariupol.
What can be confirmed is that these are not Russian regulars. This is a separatist armored battalion with elderly T-64's and BMP-1's. Neither vehicle is used by the Russian Army but large numbers are held in reserve stockpiles.
Mariupol is on the coast of the Sea of Azov and despite heavy fighting in 2014-15 remains in Ukrainian hands (for now).
Apologies for the (cut-n-paste) all caps to follow.
NOTAM over Kharkiv, Ukraine up to 16,500 ft "POSSIBILITY OF INTERCEPTION FOR OFFENDERS."
E) TEMPO RESTRICTED AREA CENTERED ON 49580N 036243E
WITH RADIUS 10 KM ACTIVATED.
FLIGHTS OF UNMANNED AIRCRAFT ARE PROHIBITED.
FLIGHTS OF THE AIRCRAFT WITH MAXIMUM TAKE OFF WEIGHT
*That's above shoulder fired SAM and AA gun range. But well within all other SAM ranges.
The Russians probably aren't expecting either Ukraine or NATO to fly air missions in the Kharkiv area. But they will be launching air and artillery strikes of their own on the Ukrainian defenders.
There is now a 10 mile traffic jam on the E105 highway to Kharkiv from Russia. And it's all Russian Army vehicles.
In western military terms that's the MSR (Main Supply Route).
Russian Mech Infantry battle group in Krasnaya Yaruga, 9 miles from Ukraine's border and about 10 miles north of the MSR.
This is likely a flank protection group for the MSR, but could also/or be intended for a drive on the city of Sumy, Ukraine.
The airports in Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaporizhzhya that are closed until morning have their runways blocked by tractors in order to prevent Russia’s paratroopers from landing there.
Here's the Russian NOTAM flight restriction area.
Heavy and sustained artillery just west of Mariupol.
In western terms that's called Prep Fire.
Video posted tonight from Crimea. Per video author, caption says, "Hundreds of vehicles go to the border with Ukraine."
In the video is a Russian Naval Infantry unit. Surprisingly the 2nd vehicle seen in the video is an elderly PT-76 amphibious tank. Supposedly the Russian Navy only has about 30 of those remaining in service.
Traffic jams are reported in Crimea on the only road leading north into the rest of Ukraine.
(for once the TicTok music is fitting the occasion)
CNN reporting 90% of Ukrainian government web sites now down due to cyber strikes.
NOTAM closing the entire Ukrainian airspace.
Pretty sure this one is from the Ukrainian government.
China MFA SPOX statement on Ukraine should put to rest any questions about PRC views on the crisis. To summarize:
1) It's the U.S's fault
2) The U.S. is exacerbating the issue
3) China will never join sanctions
4) China's position is not contradictory
Russia's Speznaz attack on Ukraine Crimea border posts, more missiles onto Mariupol, and lights out in major cities.
This, Mariupol, is not the main attack. It has objectives, but it is a diversion from the center of gravity. What the Germans called the schwerpunkt (main emphasis) is elsewhere.
It's designed to draw Ukrainian reserves away from that schwerpunkt.
Secretary-General of UN: Mr. Putin, stop your troops.
Putin presidential address right now.
I'll go ahead and translate Putin's response before he makes it...
"No."
*checks watch*
Russian bomber launched PGM's should start arriving on Ukrainian targets within the next half hour to hour, depending on launch points and missile types.
Kramatorsk air base in Ukraine is getting hit right now. That will be the missiles.
Live stream from Kharkov, Ukraine.
Looks like the camera view is from west of the city looking east. Not sure.
@Render I'm no expert but I'm guessing they've made up their mind
@Render
No military strategy genius here, but a concentration of armed vehicles and troops = 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯. 🤷🏻♂️
@no9frcpack Target for what and who? NATO isn't going to launch air strikes inside of Russia. Ukraine won't risk their handful of combat aircraft in Russia and Ukraine's artillery can't reach that far.
@Render So it begins...
@Render They will attack Taiwan and ignore the UN they now know the world is divided effectively enough
@Render will it?
@Thumprhare If Ukraine has any mobile reserves within driving range, then yes it almost certainly will.
But I have my doubts about that. I believe that they've already committed all of the reserves they had in that area.
Hard crust, no depth.
@Render we ready for a “shock and awe” type response?
@SGT_B_DUB Not really...
@Render We got confirmation of trigger pulls?
@Render God be with Ukraine
You’re so on top of this Render. CoSo is so lucky to have you.
@Render
Watch "KERRIA - Leave A Light On (Tom Walker cover)" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/YLTEmLseCRs
@Render purely coincidental
Full salvos of 122mm artillery and 122m rockets landing in Ukraine north of Crimea.