The ever wonderful Janes hard at work. Updated position map, already between 3 days and a week behind of current moves but still better than most non-classified sources.
The main phase of the exercise in Belarus begins tomorrow and runs until February 20, the same day the Olympics end. It appears we'll see a large naval exercise in the Black Sea until the 19th as well.
The first group of USAF B-52H's has arrived in England.
Call sign Hate14.
23rd Squadron, 5th Bomb Wing. Call sign Grim22.
That's both squadrons of 5th Bomb Wing.
Ukrainian army finally moving some units around.
Airborne brigade, tank brigade, and artillery brigade moving to positions opposite of Crimea. Reportedly to Kherson, which is on the opposite side of the Dnieper and controls the lower Dnieper bridges.
Reinforcing a Border Guard detachment and Police battalion that had been holding that area alone.
heh...
That's an entire Russian tank company, stuck in the mud near Rostov.
Russian tank companies come in two sizes. Attached to divisions/brigades they have between 12 and 14 tanks. Attached to independent armored brigades they have 7 to 9 tanks. (mostly)
Unless there is another hard freeze coming to the region, the Russians will be sticking to paved roads for their invasion plans. Or waiting until next Summer.
Israel is evacuating the families of the diplomats from Kyiv Ukraine and issues a travel warning to the country.
Russian Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov was expected to arrive in Israel next Monday but postponed his trip earlier this week.
These are quotes from various sources.
NATO ambassadors have convened a highly unusual Friday night meeting to discuss increased concerns about Russian military planning.
The US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine, and communicated those plans to the Russian military.
Administration officials say that they expect the invasion to begin next week.
(China gonna be mad if they weren't informed already.)
Lt. Gen. Erik Kurilla, commanding general of XVIII ABN Corps out of Fort Bragg, has arrived in Germany, officials say. His headquarters had deployed in light of the crisis in Ukraine, and he traveled to join them after testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee this week.
The Biden administration has made a decision to send 3,000 additional troops from the 82 Airborne to Poland. (I think that's all 3 of the 82nd's combat brigades now committed).
As of Friday, several hundred members of the Florida National Guard were still in Ukraine on a mission to train Ukrainian forces, defense officials say. They could be withdrawn quickly if necessary, the Pentagon has previously indicated. (no, they cannot. They will have to drive or walk out.)
Russia has deployed 203mm 2S7 Malka howitzers both near Belgorod and in Crimea. Probably shows which areas Russia will seek to "soften".
If this is the case than the Russians may have elected for the smaller pincer maneuver of the three that they've pre-positioned themselves for. The northern arm of the pincer (20th Guards Army, 6th Combined Arms Army, and 1st Guards Tank Army) aimed at the central Dnieper river bridges and the southern arm (58th Combined Arms Army) still aimed at the lower Dnieper brides.
That northern arm will be advancing through some notoriously infamous WW2 battlefields.
CVN 75 USS Harry Truman (the Big Stick) and her task force are now in the Adriatic Sea, between Italy and Croatia, exercising with the Croatian "navy".
Croatia doesn't really have a navy. Just a small collection of elderly patrol and missile boats.
The Adriatic is about as close as the USN can get a carrier to Ukraine without being in the Black Sea. It's still outside of the unrefueled range of the carriers Super Hornets.
Hope there are enough tanker planes in Europe...
Truman task force has at least one, sometimes two Burke class DDG's and at least one Tico class CG. There is another USN smaller task force in the Mediterranean consisting of four more Burke class DDG's.
Probably around 200-250 Tomahawk missiles from those destroyers and cruisers, depending on load outs and actual ship numbers.
Unknown how many USN subs are in the region.
Elements of 4th Guards Tank Division (of 1st Guards Tank Army) moving closer to the Ukraine border.
Iskander missile battalions also moving closer to the border.
Location on map...
The northern arm of the small pincer.
First objective (above map) will be Kharkiv. But the spearhead won't try to take the city itself. It'll bypass via the city's ring road, continuing west/southwest to Poltava.
At Poltava they'll have 3 options, two leading to the central Dnieper river bridges (Kremenchu and Dnipro-Zaporizhzia gap) and the third option leading to the bridges at Cherkasy and Kiev.
Video showing T-90's from Southern District moving through Crimea. They're moving by rail, so it's still a matter of a 24 to 48hrs before those are ready.
T-72's, T80's, BMP-2's, and combat engineer vehicles. Train yard at Voronezh.
170 miles from the Ukrainian border at Belograd/Kharkiv.
Video independently geolocated and dated roughly 24hrs ago.
These are elements of 1st Guards Tank Army loading up for the short train ride to Belograd.
Last night.
US military intel knows exactly where the Russian combat units are on the other side of the border. Which means that Ukraine's intel agencies know as well.
Logistics support unit outside of Livny, Russia.
Note that they are using local civilian gas stations for refueling.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered 160 troops from the Florida National Guard to temporarily leave Ukraine.
Those forces will reposition elsewhere in Europe, Pentagon said.
It appears as though the bulk of the Russian troops in Syria have been withdrawn.
Most, including the heavy vehicles, departed on the six LST's which are currently moving north through the Black Sea towards Crimea.
The rest is on several chartered civilian Russian flagged cargo ships currently transiting the Turkish straight.
Big Peter has moved, but not much.
No longer pier side, but moored in the bay now. An indicator that the big bastard is ready to go.
Aircraft traveling through Ukrainian airspace will no longer be insured by international insurance companies from Feb. 14, forcing flights to be grounded or canceled, according to Ukrainian publication Ukrainska Pravda.
There are now two S-400 long range SAM battalions and a single Krashuka-4 electronic warfare battalion at Luninets air base, Belarus.
These are theater level Russian assets. From that location the S-400's can reach out as far as Warsaw and Kiev. The Krashuka-4 is designed expressly to jam USAF AWACS aircraft radar.
There are also at least 2 maybe 3 Su-25 attack squadrons now located there.
Luninets is normally dormant and empty, a Cold War relic.
The mass movement of helicopters observed east of Moscow yesterday has arrived at its destinations. Bryansk (20th Guards CAA) and Belgorod (1st Guards TA).
Israeli ch1 confirms Russian operating systems out of Latakia, Syria are jamming/spoofing civilian aircraft GPS signals and ADSB tracking all over the Middle East.
Washington is preparing to withdraw all US personnel from Kyiv within the next 24-48 hours, sources told CBS News.
More than 50 helicopters were seen today at an abandoned airbase near Novoozerne, Crimea.
Google Earth images show that the Russians began preparing/restoring parts of that base last Summer.
On the left Konrad Muyka's position map Feb 5th.
On the right @/The_Lookout_N position map Feb 13th.
Konrad wasn't wrong, the Russians just hadn't finished shuffling units before their final jumping off points.
Lookout intentionally ignored Russia/Belarus units further west in Belarus as being there only to intimidate NATO in Poland. And he's probably correct about that...
35th CAA is unlikely to move at all. Directly south of them is the Chernobyl exclusion zone and the Pripet marshes. Nobody wants to fight there.
I'll be surprised if 1st GTA is actually in 6th CAA's zone. I have them entirely at/around Belograd, between 6th CAA and 20th GCAA.
8th CAA and its 2 independent Corps are already entrenched opposite about 1/3rd of the Ukrainian army.
22nd Corp in Crimea is a coastal defense unit.
Units from the Russian 2nd CAA are arriving on the Ukrainian border.
That's all eleven of Russia's armies.
Units from 1st GTA, 6th CAA, and 20th GCAA are leaving their parking areas and moving closer to the Ukrainian border.
Map from Konrad Muzyka. He's seeing the same patterns that I am. E105 highway to Kharkiv, Ukraine and beyond.
@voltronic @Render it's one of those "I really hope I'm not right" situations
@voltronic @lacuda If every single active and National Guard division, brigade and regiment in the US Army and USMC spent a month moving to the Mexican border and massing on key highways leading into Mexico...
People would rightfully assume that Mexico was in for some deep and painful shit.
Ergo.
@Render
That really puts it in perspective. What I've read is roughly 70% of the USSR-I mean Russian ground forces are in place to invade.
It makes me think though, that if NATO suddenly grows some huevos and decides to beat back an invasion that there's quite a target-rich environment.
How good are the Russian SAM units these days?
@voltronic Their air defense systems are much better than the days of the SA-2 Flying Telegraph pole. But still not great, as the Israelis have demonstrated repeatedly over Syria.
As in the past, they make up for it with mass numbers.
@lacuda Their marshaling yards were between 5 and 20 miles from the border. Now they're right on the border itself.
There is video of heavy self propelled artillery moving up to the border as well. Those usually move by tractor trailer or train.