A long overdue and much belated Update is upon us.

Part of the reason this update is so late is that things are still very fluid on the eastern front and can/have changed as fast as I can type it up...

I'll leave the reader to figure out what the other part of the reason is.

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Kherson Bridge Head - Near constant artillery duels. Ukr gradually gaining upper hand in those duels via the arrival of French and US 155mm artillery and distributed shoot and scoot artillery tactics.. Ukr forces posturing for a ground offensive and have pushed Russian defensive positions back in a key area that could lead to a wider Ukr offensive splitting the bridgehead area in two and cutting off several Russian BTG's.

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Russians will have to decide between defending the entire bridgehead area or just the two Dneiper bridges themselves. Loss of the northern bridge would threaten not just the Russian bridgehead but the entire southwestern front.

Zaporizhia to Donetsk (southern front) - More artillery duels. Russian probes all along the line met with Ukr counter attacks. Russians still trying to rebuild units damaged in Mariupol behind this line. Lots of partisan activity behind Russian lines.

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Eastern Front (Donbas Line) – Most of the line still holding despite repeated Russian attacks and constant artillery.

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Eastern Front (Severodonetsk) – Ukrainians have withdrawn from the city. Not sure how far they will withdraw, there are a large number of already built defensible lines that they can retreat too in this area. Some of which date back to WW2. This will be seen as a Russian victory at least initially, but it shortens up the length of any new defensive line the Ukr chooses and doubles the number of Ukr brigades available to hold that new line.

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As long as the Ukr doesn't withdraw too far. *Ukr is counterattacking on both flanks of their withdrawal as I post this.

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Eastern Front (Izium) – Very little Russian progress here (most of the best Russian units transferred either south to Severodontesk or north to the Kharkiv region). The loss of Severodonotesk relieves pressure from the south on the Russian held Izium Bulge but the city and its crucial (to the Russians) crossroads and road network remain under Ukrainian artillery fire and threat from from the west.

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Ukr 25th ABN Brigade hold the line here but is backed up by both 92nd and 93rd Ukr Mech Brigades. As we've seen previously, wherever those two mechanized in name only brigades go, the Russians take a whuppin.

Kharkiv – Russians digging in, trying to hold small areas just inside of Ukraine, in no condition to launch any new attacks, much less stop the Ukrainians from shelling long stretches of the Russian northern supply route.

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Overall – Western sent artillery is making a huge difference, silencing Russian artillery wherever it fires on them. Large numbers of ex-Polish tanks arriving at the battle front, mostly in the Kherson region with the Ukr 5th Reserve Tank Brigade. Ukraine still has a large strategic reserve of combat ready brigades. Including 10 Territorial Defense Brigades and 8 regular army/marine brigades (2 armored), plus numerous National Guard and foreign volunteer battalions.

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While Russia continues to take ground in small chunks on the eastern front, they are losing 1000's of troops and hundreds of vehicles a week to do so. An example of this can be seen in the arrival of large numbers of very elderly T-62 tanks on the southern front, which appear to be being dug into defensive positions as stationary pillboxes.

-fin

@Render Completely uninformed opinion: seems the tempo of change in where the lines are has slowed dramatically. Is it reasonable to expect that Ukr is going to take time to bleed the Russians of resources before making any large attempts at recapture?

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@FreedomATX @Render
So, this makes the sanctions an even more critical method of achieving the greater strategy. The more they are weakened through attrition of troops and have to resort to declaring war, the more the Russian public (mothers & sons) will begin resisting.

They are never going to run out of fuel.

They are probably never going to run out of ammunition.

They will run out of will (or sufficient will) to be an offensive force.
Time and bad news will become a greater influence.

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