Possible roadmap with a positive outcome:
1) Russia takes Ukraine and is sealed off from the rest of the world
2) Countries fund the insurgency that picks apart all logistics within Russia
3) Russians are starving by the millions
4) The US negotiates relaxation of the restrictions in exchange for nuclear weapons
5) Russia is de-nuclearized
6) Russia is broken up into many smaller states
7) A program is implemented in each state to create a local identity so they never re-group
@mcfate
If you have thoughts on alternative outcomes than #1, I'd be really interested. I don't think Putin is ever going to back down.
How's he going to do anything else when Russia is completely bankrupt in six to eight weeks?
He's burning 1.5% of his GDP on this, and his sovereign debt is a junk bond.
@mcfate
He's going to unload every weapon available.
He will starve his troops and make them attack by threatening death.
It will not be pretty.
Wait, he's going to starve them AND threaten to kill them?
No, it won't be pretty, they'll all murder their commanders and go surrender for a bowl of hot soup.
@mcfate
They will already be starving and ready to revolt.
But they will still fight out of fear of death. I think the Nazis did a similar tactic to keep moving forward.
You THINK?
I think you're mistaken. Was this "moving forward" while they were getting massacred on the Eastern Front by Russia, or when they were getting mowed down by the other Allies in the West?
Because none of that was actually "forward". That was a retreat and a rout.
Not to mention, a starving, frightened, demoralized rabble is going to get slaughtered when they come up against people who aren't any of those things.
You read too many comic books, I think.
@mcfate
So what does Putin do after this news gets back to him?
What he's doing now: spending money and hoping for some sort of a miracle.
China's not going to help him, this is a disaster. Better to let him sink that to sink WITH him.
Also, China's trade with Russia isn't a tenth of its trade with the EU and US.
Seriously, if you tell someone, "Go out and get yourself killed or I'll kill you," they'll KILL you. Every single time.
That's literally the worst negotiating strategy possible.
Now, let's say you're right and he wins tomorrow.
Cut that estimate down to THREE weeks, because first thing, the same sanctions hit Ukraine, PLUS he's got to fight an insurgency approximately FOREVER.
He can't afford this. When he saw it wasn't going to be over in a day, he should have backed right up and gone home.
And had Shoygu shot.
@mcfate
So, if he doesn't get financially and strategically stabilized in time to hold Ukraine, he fails and is deposed?
Well, there will be riots in the streets when everybody runs out of pretty much everything, and the government can't do shit about it.
People are losing their jobs, they're losing their businesses, their money is worth less than toilet paper is. You don't think they'll NOTICE, because they won't mention it on the news?
@mcfate
Sounds like Zimbabwe.
Mugabe held on for >20 years.
How does Putin go down?
What are you talking about?
Was Zimbabwe a relatively stable, almost middle-class place at ANY time?
Was ZImbabwe waging a $20 billion dollar a day war against someone for any of those twenty years?
@mcfate
So, the public riots....
The riot police stand down....
The Kremlin is stormed...
Putin is hung in Red Square....
I don't think the last three steps are going to happen.
Okay, you know, I'm losing interest in what you think: you seem to imagine Russia in the 2020s in somehow Zimbabwe of twenty-five years ago and that there are lessons to be drawn from "STRONG SCARY EVIL DUDE".
And that's simply facile. What if Putin's Mugabe in 2017?
WHO'S GOING TO PAY THOSE RIOT POLICE?
Come on, you've GOT to do better than that.
@mcfate
Putin will always be able to find funds to protect himself. Tyrants rarely go personally broke. Putin will always have funding at the scale to pay for security.
How else does he go down?
You make a lot of broad, categorical statements and never offer anything in support of them. You seem unaware of the counterexamples. Maybe you're hoping I'M unaware of 'em.
What happened to Marcos? What happened to Ceausescu? What happened to Pinochet? What happened to Allende? What happened to the Shah of Iran?
I don't think he's going to go personally broke, I think he's going to become personally deceased.
In any case, I'm tired of this, unless you start coming up with actual evidence to back something up.
So, please stop.
@mcfate
Fine. This isn't going well at all.
If anyone else wishes to engage, I'm interested in discussing the OP.
No, and it went off the rails when you ignored my pointing out that Russia will be completely bankrupt in a month and a half at the rate this is going.
@mcfate
I'm willing (trying) to stop if you will.
I'd like to maintain a civil community here.
I'm only trying to learn.
@th3j35t3r
Let me help both of us and mute you, then.
@jurban
They've got six to eight weeks to figure out how they pay for step 1 there, and stay afloat through step 2.