Possible roadmap with a positive outcome:
1) Russia takes Ukraine and is sealed off from the rest of the world
2) Countries fund the insurgency that picks apart all logistics within Russia
3) Russians are starving by the millions
4) The US negotiates relaxation of the restrictions in exchange for nuclear weapons
5) Russia is de-nuclearized
6) Russia is broken up into many smaller states
7) A program is implemented in each state to create a local identity so they never re-group
They've got six to eight weeks to figure out how they pay for step 1 there, and stay afloat through step 2.
@mcfate
If you have thoughts on alternative outcomes than #1, I'd be really interested. I don't think Putin is ever going to back down.
How's he going to do anything else when Russia is completely bankrupt in six to eight weeks?
He's burning 1.5% of his GDP on this, and his sovereign debt is a junk bond.
@mcfate
They will already be starving and ready to revolt.
But they will still fight out of fear of death. I think the Nazis did a similar tactic to keep moving forward.
You THINK?
I think you're mistaken. Was this "moving forward" while they were getting massacred on the Eastern Front by Russia, or when they were getting mowed down by the other Allies in the West?
Because none of that was actually "forward". That was a retreat and a rout.
Not to mention, a starving, frightened, demoralized rabble is going to get slaughtered when they come up against people who aren't any of those things.
You read too many comic books, I think.
@mcfate
So what does Putin do after this news gets back to him?
What he's doing now: spending money and hoping for some sort of a miracle.
China's not going to help him, this is a disaster. Better to let him sink that to sink WITH him.
Also, China's trade with Russia isn't a tenth of its trade with the EU and US.
Seriously, if you tell someone, "Go out and get yourself killed or I'll kill you," they'll KILL you. Every single time.
That's literally the worst negotiating strategy possible.
@jurban
Wait, he's going to starve them AND threaten to kill them?
No, it won't be pretty, they'll all murder their commanders and go surrender for a bowl of hot soup.