NHC monitoring two regions for this weekend into early next week.
Invest #94L near ABC islands / Venezuela looked more robust today, not so much this evening.
Area near West Africa some models want to develop before reaching Caribbean next week. Dry SAL riding just North of it though.
25Jun2024

Another Low pressure in the Bay of Campeche this weekend brings additional rain chances into Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and Mexico region. NHC gives 50% chance of tropical designation with it. (Image: GFS model rainfall(mm) Friday evening into Monday morning). 21Jun2024

Watching Bay of Campeche this weekend then attention turns to the 'wave train' and some potential activity in the Southwest Caribbean later next week. (image: Precipitable water model helps visualize. Colors represent measure (inches) of water in the air/atmosphere). 21Jun2024

Invest #92L nearing the coast. Only about 30miles offshore. 21Jun2024 630pEDT #FLwx #GAwx

Air recon finds #92L center 120miles E of JacksonvilleFL, 35mph winds(Tropical Depression level). However, showers/storms are still doing their own thing ignoring the nearby Low pressure. NHC wants a little more cohesion before upgrading. These borderline systems, especially sloppy tilted ones, are usually at the discretion of the forecasters on duty. 21Jun2024 11aEDT #FLwx #GAwx #SCwx #NCwx

USAF have taken off from Biloxi, MS on their way to see if invest #92L has become better organized. Do we have a Tropical Depression (TD) or low end Tropical Storm (TS) this morning? Going to be close. Don't be alarmed if upgraded today, impacts really the same. 21Jun2024 630aEDT

Still watching for potential Alberto repeat in Bay of Campeche this weekend - next week. NHC with 60% tropical development chance.

Invest #92L off SE US trying as nears warmer Gulf Stream water current. Earlier air recon showed disorganized center. NHC 50% chance tropical designation before moving inland. Wouldn't take too much more to reach Depression (TD) status which would require NHC to release their full suite of products (cone map, TS Watch(maybe), etc.).
20Jun2024

Tropical Storm #Alberto dissipates over land. Still covering most of Mexico in cloud cover and much needed scattered rains. 20Jun2024

Invest #92L near the Bahamas. Nice little low level swirl but storms moving West instead of wrapping around storm. US Air Force hurricane hunters investigate later today to see what we have. 20Jun2024 915aEDT

Tropical Storm #Alberto continues to bring multiple impacts into Mexico and Texas region this evening including heavy scattered rains, tidal flooding, tornadoes & rough surf. Should center should move inland into Mexico overnight. 19Jun2024 #TXwx

Another Low pressure may form in the Bay of Campeche / Western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Could be another PTC / #Alberto repeat bringing additional rain chances into the region. NHC with 40% chance obtains tropical trouble status. 19Jun2024

Invest #92L Northeast of the Bahamas is fighting dry air limiting storm activity. Expected to head into the Southeast US coast towards Friday with some limited showers. NHC with 30% chance develops into more tropical trouble. 19Jun2024

If it weren't for #PTC1 designation (Started in 2017 as a way for NHC to communicate impacts / risk / issue watch/warnings prior to a storm actually forming), this would have been the first cone map for newly designated Tropical Storm #Alberto 19Jun2024 10aCDT

Impacts from #PTC1 heading for land soon. 18Jun2024

Sloppy June storms are common. "Don't focus on center point". Large wind field North of storm, hence Tropical Storm warnings TX coast. Onshore wind flow to help push waters higher North of #PTC1, especially around GalvestonTX. Heavy rains coming to TX / Mexico. 18Jun2024 7pCDT

~#PTC1 in Gulf of Mexico.
~Another system could form there towards next week. NHC 20% tropical development chance.
~Area may approach Southeast US coast around Friday 20% tropical development chance.
17Jun2024 8pEDT/7pCDT

Although #PTC1 has Tropical Storm winds it is not organized enough to be classified as a tropical system. PTC designation allows NHC to proactively communicate potential impacts and hazards. Rain is currently the largest impact. 17Jun2024 7pCDT/6pCST

CAG(Central American Gyre) spinning invest #90e into Central America with very heavy rain. Broad Low to move into Bay of Campeche(SW Gulf of Mexico) where has high 70%(NHC) slow tropical development chance. Main impact: Rain into Central America & West Gulf region this week. 17Jun2024 7aCDT/6aCST

Low may form Northeast of Bahamas, move into Southeast US late this week bringing some rain chances. NHC 30% chance of tropical development. Will likely be fighting nearby dry air. 17Jun2024 8aEDT

Low pressure may form along the tail of frontal boundary later this week in the Atlantic near Bahamas and head generally towards the Southeast US coast bringing increased rain chances. NHC with 20% chance of tropical development. 8pEDT 15Jun2024