While the Euro and GFS disagree on the amount, they both call for broad swath of tropical moisture into portions of the US Gulf coast and Mexico this week. Very high rainfall potential across SE Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador region. 15Jun2024(totals mm Saturday-Friday this week)

14Jun2024
East Pacific: NHC no longer monitoring showers along the South Mexico coast that had low chance of tropical development. Scattered rains remain into the region.
Atlantic:
-#90L near NC coast merging with front. That's about it for this invest.
-Broad Low may develop West Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche early next week. NHC 50% chance tropical development. Either way likely brings heavy scattered rain potential into Mexico / US Gulf coast.

Elongated lower level Low of invest #90L peaking out from beneath the clouds off the North Carolina coast. Not a healthy look if you want a tropical system. 14Jun2024 1145aEDT

invest #90L near the Carolina coast trying to organize but not getting much traction with high wind shear in place. Likely last day before merging with front. Still, a trough hangs over South Florida, which likely brings additional rain chances to the region today. 14Jun24 8aEDT

Models continue to show possible tropical system or blob of scattered showers Bay of Campeche / West Gulf of Mexico early / mid next week. Could spread moisture across Mexico & Texas as generally moves W/WNW. NHC gives 30% chance of tropical development at this time. 12Jun2024

NHC continues to monitor a potential tropical system along the South Mexico - Guatemala coast this weekend into early next week. NHC currently gives it low 20% chance of tropical development. Should increase rain chances into the region. 12Jun2024 8pEDT/6pCST

Invest #90L continues to dump scattered copious amounts of rain in FL. NHC with low 20% tropical development chance off the Carolina coast to end the week. May increase rain chances to Nova Scotia - Newfoundland region this weekend. 12Jun2024 8pEDT/9pADT

Not hard to see the wind shear over invest #90L. Lower level clouds over North Florida moving WSW, upper level clouds blowing top of storms ENE. #FLwx 12Jun2024 6pEDT

NHC monitoring two areas: invest #90L near Tampa (20% tropical development chance, wind shear high off US East coast, but still heavy rains to FL region); area South of Mexico (20% chance). Some models hint at possible Bay of Campeche region next week(to be determined). 11Jun2024

NHC monitoring the possibility of a Low forming along a trough currently producing disorganized scattered rain in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. They give it 20% chance of tropical development off the Southeast US coast later this week into the weekend. 11Jun2024

CAG(Central American Gyre: General spin of weather over region) setting up. Increased rain chances. Can spin up ghost storms in models. Can actually spin out TC’s either side of Central America. If model watching look for consistency rather then random run to run storms. 10Jun24

Still quiet in the Atlantic (early season activity has no correlation to how rest of season will be). Typically watching Gulf of Mexico region or US East coast for development potential in June. Models leaning towards increased moisture in portions of Gulf next week.
8Jun24

Today, 1June, marks the start of the Atlantic & Central Pacific hurricane season and day 18 of the East Pacific (started 15May) where there’s currently a low 10% chance of development South of Mexico.

(Regions are for North of the equator) 2024

Our two areas South of Mexico have now lost their chance to develop into tropical trouble. No development expected per NHC. Looking quiet for a bit. 19May2024

Disorganized scattered showers continue South of Mexico as the sun sets. NHC with low 20% tropical development chance two regions. 17May2024

While daily outlooks have begun for the Eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins, Central Pacific outlooks (Hawaii) will begin 1June2024 when the season begins. #HIwx

15May2024 marks the start of the East Pacific(EPAC) hurricane season. NHC monitoring scattered showers South of Mexico that currently has low 30% chance of development next 7 days as moves West-Northwest. NHC to begin normal 4x daily updates for the season on 7day outlooks today.

NHC will begin 4x daily tropical weather outlooks(TWO) for the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season today. Released at 2 & 8am,pm EDT/AST. These outlooks highlight any areas being monitored for potential tropical trouble over the next seven days. Currently no areas. 15May2024

NHC monitoring scattered showers South of Mexico/Guatemala in East Pacific. Low 0% development chance next 2 days, 30% next 7 as generally moves West-Northwest. NHC will update again by 2p Tuesday. Right on cue for start of hurricane season this week.
13May2024

Hurricane Hunter US East coast tour continues this week. Next stop, Charleston,SC 9May2024 & Sanford,FL 10May2024. Meet the crew, forecasters, tour the planes and much more if you have the chance! In storm air recon can improve forecast by as much as 20%. #HurricaneSeason