Tropical Storm Sara to bring days of heavy rain into the region. 14Nov2024

TD19 looks to stall next several days, dumping large amounts of rain in Central America and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, especially the Northern coast of Honduras. Please be careful out there! 14Nov2024 7aEST

Rafael is mostly just a spin of clouds in the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon. No further advisories / updates will be issued from NHC. 10Nov2024

Hurricane Rafael's late Thursday evening Cat3 run has concluded. Expected to struggle from here on out as meanders in the Gulf of Mexico steadily falling apart. 8Nov24

Hurricane Rafael looks impressive in the Gulf of Mexico Thursday evening. But the storm is on borrowed time with high wind shear, dry air and some cooler waters of November ahead. With no watch/warning for land, NHC updates revert back to every 6hrs at 4 and 10a/pEST at https://www.hurricanes.gov/ 7Nov24

Cat1 Hurricane Rafael near Little Cayman & Cayman Brac. 720pEST 5Nov24

Tropical Storm Rafael expected to intensify into a Hurricane. Around Thursday/Friday wind shear, dry air and cooler waters should start to impact the system structure. Rain to get pulled up ahead into the Southeastern US this week even if storm stays in Gulf. 4Nov24

Invest 97L now PTC18.
3Nov24

Invest 97L may have PTC designation Sun/Mon (allows cone map, watches, etc.) as may affect Jamaica, Caymans, Cuba as starts to organize this week. Overnight guidance suggests more NW track into Gulf instead of West, but still lot of details to be worked out with no storm yet for models to properly track. Hurricane Hunters start checking out today. 3Nov24 7aEST

For those who “fall back” on time change this evening, a reminder NHC updates will appear as if to come out an hour early starting Sunday. This is because NHC does not honor DST, following Zulu(z) time instead. For those that don’t follow either or not changing time this evening, updates will appear as normal. 2Nov24 #97L #Patty

Scattered storms South of Jamaica may organize into named tropical system early this week. Likely path would generally be Jamaica - Caymans - Western Cuba - then perhaps turn more West as High pressure (clockwise flow) along Southeast USA blocks path Northward later in the week. Details still TBD. Don't have a storm yet for models to better track / predict. 2Nov2024

(Subtropical is like a hybrid system - cross between regular Low pressure and tropical Low due to its structure and where derives energy from. Like two cars: one electric, one gas, this is a hybrid but both still cars (both still Low pressures)).

Sub-Tropical Storm Patty forms near The Azores in North Central Atlantic where Tropical Storm Warning in effect through Sunday. Brief system eventually turns towards Northwest Portugal / Spain as falls apart (Looks to stay away from flooded Eastern Spain as pivots up North-Northeast). 2Nov2024

Tropical Storm Lane forms in Eastern Pacific Saturday 2Nov2024.
No land impacts.
Very far out at sea:
About 1,525miles(2,450km) WSW of S tip of Baja.
About 1,790miles(2,880km) ESE of Hilo, HI.
Expected to fall apart by early next week.

Cat5 Hurricane Kristy in Eastern Pacific 24Oct24
Image: GOES-18 satellite (CSU/CIRA & NOAA)

Atlantic quiet as of Wednesday 23-Oct2024.

Some indication in models of possible activity West Caribbean region sometime next week. Nothing solid yet, but worth keeping an eye on. Too soon and not enough congruence in models for any specifics past that. So feel free to ignore any specific storm models you currently see on social media - there's no basis for specifics at this time.

Hurricane Kristy rapidly intensifies into powerful Cat4. Heading out to sea in the Eastern Pacific. 23-Oct2024

Remnants of Tropical Storm Nadine crossed into the Eastern Pacific and became Tropical Storm Kristy Monday afternoon. Expected to quickly intensify but continue West out to sea. Latest: https://www.hurricanes.gov/
21-Oct2024

Hurricane Oscar landfall into Cuba Sunday. 20-Oct2024

Hurricane Oscar is an extremely small core system. These tiny storms are prone to rapid rise - and rapid collapse - in wind speed. In storm aircraft data helped provide this afternoon's upgrade to hurricane as satellite could not see such a tiny center under cloud cover and wind reach(hurricane winds only extend about 5miles from center!) 19-Oct2024