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Watching for possible tropical trouble along the Southern Mexico coast in the coming week as 1 or 2 systems may try to develop and meander near the coast. 14Oct2023 (Euro precipitable water model animation from weathermodels.com )

35mph(55km/h) Tropical Depression struggling Thursday morning at sunrise as wind shear pushes storms off it's LLC (Low Level Center). Unhealthy weak system. 12Oct2023

40mph(65km/h) Tropical Storm forms this morning in Atlantic. High wind shear, dry air nearby. NHC has dissipating this weekend / early next week currently. Area behind it just moving off Africa moves West. NHC with 30% chance of tropical development next 7 days. 11Oct2023

Hurricane has rapidly weakened over the high terrain of Southwest Mexico and now dissipated. Moisture from it's remnants are streaming up into South Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. Additional moisture being pulled up along the SW Mexico coast into central Mexico. 11Oct2023

took full advantage of a small window to strengthen today, going from Tropical Storm overnight to Cat4 this afternoon. Has now made landfall about 35miles (55km) SSW of Puerto Vallarta, Mexico. Hurricane winds extend up to 30miles(45km) from center. 10-Oct-2023

Moisture from Tropical Storm and entering Mexico from the Eastern Pacific and invest in Southwest Gulf of Mexico / Bay of Campeche should bring moisture chances along the immediate US Gulf coast and into the Southeastern US this week. 9Oct2023

Tropical Storm expected to make landfall into central Mexico Tuesday or Wednesday. Invest along the Southern coast of Mexico may development and move North early this week as well. Moisture moves into the Gulf of Mexico moving E/ENE later in the week. 7Oct2023

Before Hurricane Sandy(2012) no more advisories were issued after storm became post-tropical. Lessons learned afterwards changed that position & NHC now issues regular but limited updates if system threatens land. In this case advisories will stop, maybe because occluded front?

NHC will no longer be issuing advisories on Tropical Storm . System has been absorbed / become another weather system. Impacts still coming to Northeast US / Eastern Canada this weekend - see respective local & national weather services for details (US: NWS/WPC). 6Oct23

Tropical Storm about 425miles(680km) WSW of Manzanillo, Mexico in the Eastern Pacific. Models say storm may turn back around early next week. Another area, , moving along the Southern Mexico coast to watch by next week as well potentially. 5Oct2023

Tropical Storm bringing scattered showers to Bermuda Thursday evening. Very disorganized appearance. Scattered rains and some Tropical Storm force winds likely into Eastern Canada / NE US this weekend. 5Oct2023

The evolution of cone map and actual track thus far of Tropical Storm through 8pEDT 4Oct2023:

Slow moving rains continue across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and neighboring Leeward Islands Wednesday morning. 4Oct2023 (Radar 6:15-7:10aEDT/AST)

Tropical Storm brings heavy rain to Leeward Islands. Disorganized blob. Center near Virgin Islands. Rain mainly South of center. Moves away later Wednesday. May eventually become hybrid storm / strong Low into Eastern Canada / Maine region next week. 11aEDT/AST 3Oct2023

Watching the Eastern Pacific where two areas near the South coast of Mexico may try to develop within the next week. with the highest chance. Models split currently on if approaches near tip of Baja or out to sea. Other area may form near the coast. 1Oct2023

Disorganized Tropical Storm to bring scattered heavy rain chances across portions of the Eastern Caribbean as slowly passes by. Tropical Storm Watch Antigua, Barbuda which has the greatest chance of TS winds currently(40%). 1Oct2023 Latest: hurricanes.gov

Tropical Storms & meeting up in the Atlantic. Their interaction will help influence future track. Along with not the best setup to strengthen, their interaction is not healthy either (storms like their space). For islands, rain is still biggest concern. 28Sept2023

Tropical Storm & invest(scattered showers with organized tropical potential) moving slowly. May bring scattered rain into portions of Caribbean. Proximity to each other complicates their eventual track. Biggest impact for now continues to likely be rain. 28Sept2023

Can really see the precarious state Tropical Storm is in Tuesday morning via infrared satellite image. The colors represent colder cloud tops which typically indicate where storms are present underneath. LLC no storms. Wind shear usual culprit with this setup 26Sept2023

Sunrise reveals an unhealthy Tropical Storm - wind shear has pushed storms off to the E/NE leaving harmless swirl of low level clouds.

Euro hinted it earlier, other models have now also turned future track back West, but as falls apart (if makes it that far) 26Sept2023

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