The tropical wave just off Africa has seen much more model consensus on development and more favorable conditions ahead throughout the day. Thus NHC has tagged invest 92L with high 70% development chance. 8pEDT 16June2023

A Tropical Wave is moving off of West Africa and into the Atlantic. This area of scattered showers is showing signs of some slow organization attempts in models as traverses the Atlantic for next week but will potentially battle with nearby wind shear & dry air.
NHC has a 20% development chance.

If were to approach the Caribbean, it would be mid to late next week. Some models keep just North, some across the main islands, most keep low end/weak.
15Jun2023

The East Pacific may finally begin to stir late this week / weekend. NHC with low 20% chance of development well South of Mexico. 8pEDT 12June2023

While Tropical Storm #Arlene moved in an atypical direction, it formed in the location and time period we expect based on historical records:

Tropical Storm #Arlene mostly just a swirl of clouds near Cuba Saturday morning. Scattered showers near South Florida and portions of Cuba. Likely it's last sunrise. (Storms/rain would be in the puffy clouds off to it's East) 3Jun2023

#TD2 becomes Tropical Storm #Arlene in the Gulf of Mexico. 40mph(65km/h) winds, moving South 5mph(7km/h). Expected to be short lived disorganized system as moves South towards Cuba as it weakens. 2Jun23 130pEDT

#TD2 with 35mph(55km/h) winds, drifting about 2mph(4km/h). Main impacts are increased rain chances and rip currents at this time. Expected to become named Tropical Storm before weakening this weekend towards Cuba. 5pEDT 1Jun23

(TD “1” number was taken by a January storm)

Invest #91L now up to 50% tropical development chance per NHC. The scattered showers likely to drift generally Southward in Eastern Gulf of Mexico near Florida next few days. 8aEDT 1June2023.

Watch dates on invest info (areas of potential Tropical trouble development) as the numbers repeat from 90 through 91 throughout the year.

Today, 1June2023, marks the start of the Atlantic & Central Pacific (Hawaii) Hurricane seasons! (East Pacific started 15May). Note: Named storms that enter the Central Pacific from East Pacific retain their name so the Central Pacific name list is not often used.

Typhoon #Mawar now estimated 167mph (269km/h) sustained winds as travels the open waters (JTWC 1-minute average satellite estimate). 👀 Thursday 25May2023 11p local, 9aEDT.

Typhoon #Mawar now 155mph (250km/h) winds(1-minute average by JTWC) just Southeast of Guam as the sun sets Tuesday evening. 23May2023

Typhoon #Mawar expected to strengthen as heads towards the Mariana Islands / Guam. Current weather radar loop Monday 22May2023 3a-4a local; Sunday 21May2023 1-2pEDT.

The NHC is monitoring an area just East of the Bahamas but has a low 10% chance of further development for it and states upper level winds (harmful for tropical systems) are expected to increase by later today. Just a reminder Hurricane season starts soon! 21May2023

Today, 15May, marks the start of the 2023 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane season (no storms currently). The Atlantic & Central Pacific seasons begin 1June.

Seven day outlooks are now live on NHC’s site!
Atlantic: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
East Pacific: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Tomorrow (15May) marks the start of 2023 Eastern Pacific Hurricane season and daily TWO (Tropical Weather Outlooks) for the Atlantic. This year will now feature 2 day and *7* day outlooks on possible future storms (Was 5-day previously).

Sun begins to set over Cyclone #Mocha. Center now well inland near Samee / Kimo mountain area of Myanmar(Burma) just Southeast of Bangladesh. Will continue to weaken over land. Moving North-Northeast. 14May2023 Sunday.

While Cyclone #Mocha has begun to weaken on satellite just before reaching the coast of Myanmar(Burma), it is still an extremely powerful & intensely dangerous storm. (Cloud tops warming on satellite but core intact) 14May2023 220aEDT / 1220-1250p local Bangladesh-Myanmar Sunday.

The sun is beginning to rise over Cyclone #Mocha Sunday 14May2023. Landfall expected later today. Very vulnerable low lying region & includes thousands of refugees/internally displaced persons. High winds, heavy flooding rains, landslides & storm surge possibly 3m+(10ft+) today.

Storm surge: Onshore winds to push water up onto normally dry ground near and to the right/East/South of where the eye/center comes ashore. This can reach many km/miles inland. Will head up rivers/bays/dry ground.

Upon further review, the NHC (US National Hurricane Center) has determined that invest 90L back in January in the North Atlantic was a Sub-Tropical Storm. This system impacted Nova Scotia and surrounding regions around 17Jan2023.

Because not classified at that time, it becomes an unnamed system. It's likely more of an artifact of last year's season where the Gulf Stream current still had just enough heat to support the transition of this system briefly.