After being consistent for days, the Euro model shifts towards GFS solution with possible Atlantic system near Eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Some signals may stall out & meander near the Southeast US for many days. Rain/flood, tornado threats if that occurs. Strength to be determined. Still evolving forecast. 1Aug24

Atlantic blob may be near Cuba / Bahamas region Friday. Near Florida for the weekend into next week. For now heavy scattered shower / flood maker, potential tornado threats. Questions on track / strength. Some Westward shifts in models today, but hard to tell when system hasn't actually formed yet & mountains nearby. NHC with 60% chance tropical development.
31July2024 8pEDT
(Reminder, I'm just a fan of tropical systems / weather, not a pro)

Tropical Storm #Carlotta forms in the Eastern Pacific about 310miles(500km) Southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Expected to head out to sea.
31July2024

Scattered showers and storms near coastal regions Tuesday evening as NHC monitors for potential tropical development. These areas look to continue out to sea in a general West to West-Northwest movement. 30July2024

Possible Atlantic system finally forming a few scattered storms as approaches Northeastern Caribbean. This broad region may take awhile to develop, likely more towards Bahamas this weekend. NHC with 60% chance development. GFS model shows low chance. Euro consistent with slow development & turn up near US East coast. Scattered showers along path regardless. 8pEDT 30Jul2024

Eastern Pacific has become active once more. Weather models generally favor continued out to sea path in West to West Northwest direction. NHC monitoring three areas over the next week for possible future tropical development. 6aCST 30July2024

Not much to see with possible Atlantic system as of Tuesday morning. About to enter more favorable conditions and likely see more scattered storms develop as nears the islands. NHC with 60% tropical development chance next 7-days. 30July2024 8aEDT

NHC discontinues advisories on Tropical Storm #Bud in the Eastern Pacific. It's cloud swirl ghost and some dislocated bits of scattered storms continue to fade far out at sea. 26July2024

NHC has marked an area of scattered showers in the central Atlantic with a low 20% tropical development chance next seven days as generally moves near the Northern Caribbean region later next week. Currently low model support for development but nearing that time of year Atlantic reawakens. 26July2024

Typhoon #Gaemi performed a full loop around before finally making landfall into Taiwan earlier. Wobbles and loops on approach to Taiwan have been seen before, likely due to the mountainous terrain in the East. July24
(Radar courtesy Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School)

@Pat_Walrond The break is much welcome after that last one! Hope all is getting back to more of a normal.

Tropical Storm #Bud was able to spin up in the Eastern Pacific today. Heading out to sea and not expected to strengthen much before dissipating later in the week.
24July24

The Atlantic looking quiet. Some scattered storms coming off Africa but meeting very dry dusty air (SAL) and not seeing model support for any at this time.

East/Central Pacific with 3 potential areas, but all currently with low development chance per NHC.

22July2024

Atlantic looking quiet for a bit with a large SAL outbreak (more typical of this time of year).
East/Central Pacific has a low chance of brief development far out at sea.
Overall in a quiet period.
13July2024

Remnants of #Beryl moving through the Great Lakes region and up into Canada.

The Atlantic is currently quiet except for an area off the Southeast US coast with a low 10% chance of tropical development that primarily will help bring much needed rains to the coastal region into the weekend.
10July2024

Dallas airspace looking a tad busy with Houston dealing with #Beryl at the moment. 1125aCDT 8July24 #TXwx

Tropical Storm #Beryl passing near Houston as it steadily heads off to the North.
1020aCDT/1120aEDT 8July24

Per WPC (NOAA) 2 to 4 inch per hour rainfall rates could accompany rainbands as they move ashore. #Beryl

7July2024 8pCDT

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php

Storm surge: water level rise above normal tidal levels (with 4 to 7 feet some locations per NHC). Tree & power outages (winds of just 40mph will cause problems. The wear and tear adds up, especially in more wet soils).
545pCDT/645pEDT 7July2024

And periodic reminder - I'm just a random person on the inter-webs who likes hurricanes and posting about them. Not a trained professional.

Air recon data finds pressure dropping in #Beryl. Visible & water vapor satellite imagery shows newer storms near center helping build core & mix out dry air. Storm likely entering it's forecast strengthening phase.

Regardless of final intensity, multiple hazards are coming. Several inches of rain, most with the onshore flow East of storm center. Tornadoes, again mostly on the Eastern side (typically short lived, moving in the direction of the rain band embedded in).