Several models try to develop a wave this weekend now moving off of Africa and take it near or well North of Northeast Caribbean next week for a re-curving system. NHC with 40% chance tropical development. 26July2023

Scattered showers associated with former invest #95L are likely to bring rains to the Central America region this weekend, and possibly form our next Eastern Pacific tropical system next week. NHC with 30% chance tropical development. 26July2023 (pic: amount of water in air)

No real changes from yesterdays post: 3 areas to watch in the Atlantic, but all low chance of tropical development at the moment. 25July2023

~Area to emerge off Africa later in the week may have initial favorable environment to develop if can maintain storms. Some models show it facing hurtles though before the Caribbean. Too early for much more detail for now. 24July2023 (3/3)

~Area between Bermuda & Puerto Rico 20% chance per NHC as heads for Southeast US region. Regardless of 'development', scattered shower beach weather chances for coastal regions by late week may be possible.
24July2023 (2/3)

Watching three areas in Atlantic 24July2023 :
~#95L scattered showers Lesser Antilles, wind shear awaits in Caribbean. 10% development chance per NHC. (1/3)

#Don is now post tropical (lost tropical characteristics) in the North Atlantic (swirl of clouds near center of image). Should be absorbed by other nearby weather systems soon. No more advisories will be issued by the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) 24July2023

Scattered shower activity around invest #95L has increased overnight but has not resulted in better organization. NHC 20% development chance. Wind Shear awaits in Caribbean. Scattered rains coming to the Lesser Antilles later today into Wednesday. 8aEDT/AST 24July2023

Invest #95L remains unorganized Sunday morning 23July23. Models continue to lesson development chance. The tropical wave still expected to bring scattered showers and breezy conditions to the Lesser Antilles early this week. NHC has lowered tropical development chance to 40%.

#Don has weakened to a 65mph(100km/h) Tropical Storm, reaching cooler water, wind shear, and pulling dry air into its core. Should rapidly weaken today. 8aEDT/AST 23July

#Don has indeed obtained hurricane status per satellite derived observations this afternoon. System traversed portion of the warm Gulf Stream water current giving it a boost. Per image below (colored lines are water temps) Don is about to hit colder waters & weaken though. 22July

Tiny Invest #95L looks to have some Easterly wind shear pushing it's small group of storms out ahead of its low level center today. This means it won't become much today. Storms like to be aligned vertically. NHC has lowered development chance to 60%. 2pEDT/AST 22July2023

Tropical Storm #Don in the North Atlantic about 545miles(880km) SSE of Newfoundland. Don has entered back over warmer Gulf Stream waters, trying to strengthen during its loop(Cat1 before fades?). But colder waters, wind shear & dry air are just hours away (weakens) 22July2023

Tropical Depression Four-E was a short lived system far out in the Eastern Pacific this week. #TD4e is now gone, leaving the Eastern and Central Pacific quiet once more. It's center track maps show below. 22July2023

Invest #95L 70% chance development per NHC as of 8pEDT/AST Friday 21July2023. Very small system. May be key to it's survival with nearby dry air. Storms pulsing all day, if continues development chances should increase. High pressure likely moves it into Caribbean next week.

Invest #95L has a spin and some storms firing this morning. Will need to keep those going and not suck in nearby dry air(yellows, it's really on the line there!) to develop. Overall looks to continue Westward into the Caribbean next week. 1120aEDT/AST 21July2023

Tropical Storm #Don in the far North Atlantic between Bermuda and The Azores has realized it only has the weekend to cram for its final. Doing it’s best tropical system act this morning at sunrise. 21July2023

For now, as of Thursday evening, invest #95L is just a few scattered showers far out in the Atlantic.
(5/5) 20July2023

Models have been on/off with developing invest #95L or not. With models the trend is your friend (as they say). Consistency would lead to higher confidence. Models perform better once a system forms. For now mixed signals. So we watch & wait! Plenty of time still.
(4/5) 20July2023

Whether invest #95L develops into something more then just scattered showers or not, rain may reach the Eastern Caribbean around Tuesday of next week. As enters Caribbean wind shear may be present which could limit development (one wind shear model shown below).
(3/5) 20July2023