Traveling with the trade winds across the Atlantic with invest #95L is a large region of dry dusty air from the Sahara Desert (SAL, seen as yellow, orange, reds in image below). If dry air gets entangled with the potential system it can prevent storms from forming. 20July2023 (2/5)
Looks like the potential Atlantic system has been labeled invest #95L (number given for tracking, communication, and information gathering tasking purposes). As of 8pEDT 20July2023 NHC now gives the area a 30% chance of development next 7 days. There are multiple hurdles ahead: (1/5)
Tropical Storm #Calvin passing South of The Big Island Hawaii 2aHST,8aEDT 19July2023. System weakening but heavy scattered rains will continue Wednesday.
Tropical Storm winds(39mph+) extend up to 140miles from center. Storm about 160miles from Hilo; 295miles from Honolulu.
Storm not in great shape as infrared satellite shows. Colors are colder cloud tops indicating where storms/heavy rain likely located; area moving toward The Big Island. While no storms present at storm center South of island
Tropical Storm Watch may be issued for portions of Hawaii this evening due to #Calvin. This is expected and not an increase in threat level, the forecast is still unchanged. Watches are time based issued, so 48 hours before possible TS winds may arrive they are issued. 16July2023
Historical average says in a few weeks tropical system activity in Atlantic should ramp up, peaking mid-September (blue arrow is today). Other than #Don all looks quiet this week. Next week watching tropical waves between Africa and Caribbean for any development signs. 16July2023
Hurricane #Calvin weakening. Expected to pass over or South of Hawaii late Tuesday through Wednesday as a 35-40mph Tropical Storm or breezy/scattered shower remnant. Waves 10-15ft+ possible some islands, 5-10ft elsewhere. 15July23 Wave height model(time top center Zulu time)#HIwx
Subtropical Storm #Don Friday evening 14July2023. GOESeast NOAA satellite imagery by SSEC RealEarth™: https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/
@Alt_Human (2/2) The “L” represents Atlantic basin (‘A’ is used for Arabian Sea). For the Atlantic, East and Central Pacific Oceans North of the equator the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) updates the status of invest every six hours at 2 & 8am/pmEDT here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php
@Alt_Human (1/2) invest is short for investigative area. It’s a designation given to a blob of weather that has potential for tropical trouble. Labeling lets them be identified & tracked. Not all invest develop into a tropical system and not all tropical systems start off labeled as an invest. Invest are numbered 90 through 99 then number repeats back at 90 (so always check dates when looking up info).
In the North central Atlantic we have invest #94L (Number to identify potential tropical trouble) between Bermuda & The Azores with 60% chance of becoming Sub-Tropical system this week. The swirl of clouds is associated with frontal boundaries so not purely tropical. It is expected to turn back generally Northward soon. By this weekend it will move towards cooler waters where likely to weaken. 8pEDT 12July23
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