Large scale flood events:

Road crews / police cannot monitor or close all flooded roads. Not enough resources, people, equipment, time, information, ability to get to due to other flooded roads, other emergencies, etc.

Stay home if able & at a minimum “turn around don’t drown”.
#scwx #ncwx #Debby

Debby expected to drift into Atlantic Tuesday where some restrengthening is likely as continues pushing rain inland.

Elsewhere scattered showers in East Caribbean have potential to develop near Yucatan Peninsula late this week. NHC with 30% chance tropical development.
5Aug24

Eastern Pacific:
-Carlotta
-Daniel
-Emilia
-Fabio

All headed out to sea.
Carlotta/Daniel on last leg.
Emilia/Fabio to combine but only 1 will win, NHC going with Emilia.
5Aug24

WPC (NOAA) 7-day rainfall forecast animation as #Debby slowly moves through the Carolina's.
Day/time image frame valid for is the small text top left.
"Turn around don't drown". Most US flood deaths involve vehicle being driven into flood waters. Don't become a statistic.
Large scale disaster events = authorities ~ WILL NOT ~ be able to close most flooded roads.
4Aug24 #SCwx #NCwx

We wake to find #Debby still lopsided and slowly organizing. Most storms and winds are on the Eastern side. West side with nearby dry air and some wind shear. Will need to wrap storms around the core to strengthen more quickly. 4Aug24 7aEDT

Atlantic:
'Debby' slowly organizing for tonight.
Slow moving after Florida landfall = major flood threat from rain in Southeast US potential.
Additional Watches coming soon for the Atlantic coast as well.
3Aug24 11pEDT

East Pacific:
'Carlotta' likely peaked. Moving into dryer air, cooler waters with wind shear ahead.
To the Southwest 'Daniel' just able to grab a name. Expected to near Carlotta as both fall apart.
Invest '96E' South of Mexico 90% chance develops. Likely absorbs another Low between it and Carlotta.
All systems heading out to sea.
3Aug24 9pCST

Did you know?
Cone map does not convey forecast uncertainty.
Cone size is the 5-year average NHC forecast position error.
Slow movement of #Debby makes cone appear different than other storm cones but same size used all year.
Cone made: Forecast position points, draw 5-year average error circles, connect to make smooth cone shape.

That said, NHC forecast typically rival any single computer model during a season.

PTC4 (Potential Tropical Cyclone Four)
2Aug2024 11aEDT
Latest issued every 3 hours at: https://www.hurricanes.gov/

Potential Tropical Cyclone 4 #PTC4 (was invest 97L) for Atlantic system - Watches, cone map, etc. coming from NHC shortly as we are closer in time to Tropical Storm impacts arriving over land. (PTC designation let’s that impact potential be known before a storm officially forms) 2Aug2024 #FLwx

Don’t be surprised if you see Watches for portions of Florida issued today for invest #97L. Nothing has really changed - just closer in time to impacts arriving. PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) designation would let that information be disseminated before a storm forms for advanced lead times. #FLwx 2Aug24

GFS and Euro spaghetti models Thursday 1Aug24 to next Wednesday.
Invest #97L (Invest = area of interest = dedicates more resources to monitor potential tropical trouble. Breezy scattered shower blob for now.)
#FLwx

After being consistent for days, the Euro model shifts towards GFS solution with possible Atlantic system near Eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend into early next week. Some signals may stall out & meander near the Southeast US for many days. Rain/flood, tornado threats if that occurs. Strength to be determined. Still evolving forecast. 1Aug24

Atlantic blob may be near Cuba / Bahamas region Friday. Near Florida for the weekend into next week. For now heavy scattered shower / flood maker, potential tornado threats. Questions on track / strength. Some Westward shifts in models today, but hard to tell when system hasn't actually formed yet & mountains nearby. NHC with 60% chance tropical development.
31July2024 8pEDT
(Reminder, I'm just a fan of tropical systems / weather, not a pro)

Tropical Storm #Carlotta forms in the Eastern Pacific about 310miles(500km) Southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Expected to head out to sea.
31July2024

Scattered showers and storms near coastal regions Tuesday evening as NHC monitors for potential tropical development. These areas look to continue out to sea in a general West to West-Northwest movement. 30July2024

Possible Atlantic system finally forming a few scattered storms as approaches Northeastern Caribbean. This broad region may take awhile to develop, likely more towards Bahamas this weekend. NHC with 60% chance development. GFS model shows low chance. Euro consistent with slow development & turn up near US East coast. Scattered showers along path regardless. 8pEDT 30Jul2024

Eastern Pacific has become active once more. Weather models generally favor continued out to sea path in West to West Northwest direction. NHC monitoring three areas over the next week for possible future tropical development. 6aCST 30July2024

Not much to see with possible Atlantic system as of Tuesday morning. About to enter more favorable conditions and likely see more scattered storms develop as nears the islands. NHC with 60% tropical development chance next 7-days. 30July2024 8aEDT

NHC discontinues advisories on Tropical Storm #Bud in the Eastern Pacific. It's cloud swirl ghost and some dislocated bits of scattered storms continue to fade far out at sea. 26July2024