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Scattered rains and breezy conditions from invest will hamper recovery and aid efforts across the Windward Islands.
Radar 935a-1135aEDT/AST 3July2024

jogged a little West overnight, but resumed WNW movement again. Eye has become more obscured on satellite as continues to fight wind shear. Still a strong storm. Wednesday morning air recon arrives soon to see what looks like inside. Heavy rains Hispaniola.
3July2024 4aEST/5aEDT

Hurricane taking aim at Jamaica Wednesday.
Wind shear continues to slowly degrade storm, but it remains a powerful hurricane.
2July2024 7pEST/8pEDT

invest appears to have thrown in the towel after seeing what could do. NHC lowers tropical development chance down to 20%. Still may bring scattered showers and gusty conditions to the islands this week. 2July2024

Sunrise over Hurricane .
Wind shear visible Northwest of system (notice clouds move different directions Eastern Dominican Republic and South of Hispaniola). Storms don't like wind shear, but strong storms can fight it off a little longer then others. Strong storm and far reaching impacts still.
2July2024

Hurricane pulling away from the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea Monday evening. 1July2024

Worst of Hurricane coming into Carriacou, Northern Grenada, and islands South of St. Vincent now. 1040aEDT/AST 1July2024

Core of Hurricane has missed Barbados and Tobago. Worst of storm approaching near Grenada and islands South of St. Vincent
915aEDT/AST 1July24
barbadosweather.org/Radars/Lea

Hurricane 's dangerous eyewall region (strongest winds location) passing between Barbados and Tobago(uncomfortably close). Heading towards Grenada and portions of the Grenadines with full force of winds and storm surge. 7aEDT/AST 1July2024

Radar captures eye wall replacement cycle (ERC). Notice small eye bounces around larger ring & disappears. This changing of batteries (if you will) typically weakens storm temporarily but then can resume strengthening when complete. Wind field reach from center also expands.
220aAST 1July24

Hurricane 1130pEDT/AST radar from Barbados (radar looks up at an angle so that slice can appear odd looking. Is normal). Highest winds are right around that eye.
barbadosweather.org/Radars/Lea
Sunday 30Jun2024

(former ) becomes Tropical Storm in Bay of Campeche. Moves inland tonight. Rain maker. Winds 40mph(65km/h). 11pEDT/9pCST 30Jun2024

invest organizes enough to become Tropical Depression Three in Bay of Campeche. Winds 35mph(55km/h). If increases winds just 5mph(8km/h) then will be classified as a named Tropical Storm but no change in impacts if you see that. Rain maker. Moves inland tonight either way.
30Jun2024 4pCST

Sunset over Hurricane
May just thread between Barbados & Tobago hopefully keeping hurricane force winds offshore.
Unfortunately the islands just West of there may take full force of wind/surge.
Hurricane Watch likely coming for Jamaica on Monday.
Could reach the Yucatan to end the week.
30Jun2024 5pEDT/AST

Note: slight wobbles will make all the difference on who sees what. Even just a few miles can make a massive difference in wind speeds received.

Cat4
2pEDT/AST 30Jun2024
Winds: 130mph(215km/h)
Hurricane(74mph+/119km/h+) force winds extend up to 30miles(45km) from center.
Tropical Storm(39-73mph/63-118km/h) force winds extend up to 115miles(185km) from center.
Winds arrive tonight. Finish all prep.
Reminder may arrive 2 days later into region (Wednesday).

96L out in the Atlantic following about two days behind . NHC with 70% chance tropical designation as also heads towards the Windward Islands this week. 2pEDT/AST 30Jun2024

in Bay of Campeche on the verge of being classified just before moving inland to Mexico in a few hours. Regardless of any tropical designation, the main story is more scattered rains across the region (one picture with rainfall map is Euro model rain(mm) Sun-Mon). 30Jun2024

Some notes
~NHC updates storm stats/map every 3 hours 2,5,8&11a/pEDT/AST at www.hurricanes.gov
~Strong hurricanes wobble. Slight wobbles will make all the difference on who sees what.
~Hurricane winds only extend out 15miles(30km) from center(can change) 30Jun24 8aAST

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