~Invest #94L moving off the Yucatan and into Bay of Campeche bringing scattered showers to the region. NHC with 50% chance can earn Tropical Depression status before moving into Mexico by Monday.
~Another area South of Mexico with low 30% chance.
29Jun2024 8pEDT/6pCST

NOAA and USAF Hurricane Hunters setting up in Caribbean to monitor #Beryl. At least 2 NOAA aircraft and 3 USAF. Will start air recon missions starting Sunday. First flight scheduled to depart 445aEDT/AST. In storm data collection can increase hurricane forecast accuracy by as much as 20% (per USAF 403rd Wing). 29Jun2024

11aEDT/AST Sat 29Jun2024:
TS #Beryl winds 65mph(100km/h)
Continues to strengthen
NHC has Cat3 115mph(185km/h) into Windward Islands early Monday
High waves
Surge 5-7ft(1.5-2.1m) onshore wind direction
3-6+in(75-150+mm) rain
Wind shear starts to weaken once in central Caribbean Sea

Tropical Storm #Beryl in the Atlantic
28Jun2024

Area near Cabo Verde Islands off NW Africa now 40% chance tropical designation per NHC. May develop next week as generally follows #TD2.
28Jun2024 8pEDT

invest #94L with numerous scattered storms as the sun sets Friday evening. Will cross the Yucatan peninsula Saturday. NHC with 40% chance tropical designation when enters Bay of Campeche Sunday. Main impact is currently heavy scattered rain chances into the region.
28Jun2024 8pEDT/6pCST

NHC currently forecasting a strengthening Hurricane reaching the Windward Islands Monday. Will likely see Hurricane / Tropical Storm Watch go up this evening or early Saturday for future wind impacts that region. Heavy rains & large waves will also accompany the system.
28Jun2024 #TD2 #95L

NHC will begin advisories on Tropical Depression Two #TD2 at 5pEDT/AST 28Jun2024 about 1350miles(2175km) East of the Windward Islands.

Likely misaligned / elongated center keeping #95L from designation currently (notice puffy clouds on top slightly different spin then thinner lower level clouds). Steadily coming together though. Should have depression or named storm soon. Watches for portions of Windward islands may be issued tonight or Saturday. 145pEDT/AST 28Jun2024

Sunrise over invest #95L Friday 28Jun2024
Located about 1500miles(2414km) ESE of Windward Islands.
Moving West about 15-20mph(24-32km/h)
Continues to improve it's structure.

#94L & #95L Thursday satellite view.
(Infrared: colors represent colder cloud tops and likely storms underneath)
NHC with 30% tropical development chance 94L, high 90% on 95L as of 8pEDT 27Jun2024

If you’re ever looking for more storm information (including the why and why not of a storms current and potential future performance, location, etc.) I always highly recommend discussion videos from Tropical Tidbits: https://youtu.be/Ph7w9cTYEb8
#95L #94L
27Jun2024

#94L & #95L with 30% & 70% tropical development chance respectfully from NHC.
~94L either side of Yucatan this weekend.
~95L near Windward Islands early next week.
Still far from US on 4July (holiday).
Reminder: Check dates on invest # as numbers repeat 90 through 99.
27Jun2024

NHC monitoring two regions for this weekend into early next week.
Invest #94L near ABC islands / Venezuela looked more robust today, not so much this evening.
Area near West Africa some models want to develop before reaching Caribbean next week. Dry SAL riding just North of it though.
25Jun2024

Another Low pressure in the Bay of Campeche this weekend brings additional rain chances into Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize and Mexico region. NHC gives 50% chance of tropical designation with it. (Image: GFS model rainfall(mm) Friday evening into Monday morning). 21Jun2024

Watching Bay of Campeche this weekend then attention turns to the 'wave train' and some potential activity in the Southwest Caribbean later next week. (image: Precipitable water model helps visualize. Colors represent measure (inches) of water in the air/atmosphere). 21Jun2024

Invest #92L nearing the coast. Only about 30miles offshore. 21Jun2024 630pEDT #FLwx #GAwx

Air recon finds #92L center 120miles E of JacksonvilleFL, 35mph winds(Tropical Depression level). However, showers/storms are still doing their own thing ignoring the nearby Low pressure. NHC wants a little more cohesion before upgrading. These borderline systems, especially sloppy tilted ones, are usually at the discretion of the forecasters on duty. 21Jun2024 11aEDT #FLwx #GAwx #SCwx #NCwx

USAF have taken off from Biloxi, MS on their way to see if invest #92L has become better organized. Do we have a Tropical Depression (TD) or low end Tropical Storm (TS) this morning? Going to be close. Don't be alarmed if upgraded today, impacts really the same. 21Jun2024 630aEDT

Still watching for potential Alberto repeat in Bay of Campeche this weekend - next week. NHC with 60% tropical development chance.

Invest #92L off SE US trying as nears warmer Gulf Stream water current. Earlier air recon showed disorganized center. NHC 50% chance tropical designation before moving inland. Wouldn't take too much more to reach Depression (TD) status which would require NHC to release their full suite of products (cone map, TS Watch(maybe), etc.).
20Jun2024