@LiberalLibrarian Apparently it's also possible that there are indictments and they're under seal.

The reporters are still waiting and don't know if they should be.

@LiberalLibrarian Clerk's office was supposed to close at 4, but apparently reporters are still congregated and waiting.

They don't know what if anything is happening, so we don't know.

@LiberalLibrarian Apparently the courthouse clerk's office closes in 3 minutes.

@LiberalLibrarian I'm sure the "official" result "corrects" the oversample. But as I said below, that means Siena is creating a demographic model based on its own assumptions.

The biggest problem with the poll is that the 14% "uncommitted" are, by NYT's own admission, much more hostile to Trump than Biden. But pundits cling to "they say they won't vote or will vote 3d party so they DON'T COUNT!" Because "I'll vote 3d party!" declarations are always reliable 15 months out, right?

@LiberalLibrarian They'll have oversampled Rs for the R primary component of the poll, and then they'll have used some fancy algorithm to "compensate" for the oversample... which of course means adjusting the poll based on their assumption about the composition of the electorate.

Polling is only reliable in blowout races. In a polarized country, you can get basically any result by how you weight the sample.

@LiberalLibrarian If that continues, it would suggest it was an injury.

@LiberalLibrarian Might be tendonitis. I have that in a couple of fingers and an elbow.

@LiberalLibrarian Did they do any x rays?

@LiberalLibrarian @Cachobweeney It sounds like in his earlier companies people successfully managed him and stopped him wrecking things. But twitter or X or whatever it is now is his personal toy and no one can stop him.

@Cachobweeney @LiberalLibrarian It was plainly illegal. But it also looked seriously dangerous.

@LiberalLibrarian He'd have liked the consequences even less if it had come down in high winds and killed someone... which looked likely for that jury-rigged crap.

@Rustbelt_Dem @LiberalLibrarian It is indeed.

@LiberalLibrarian @Rustbelt_Dem I'm still thrilled I finally found the sci fi short story that so impressed me in 1982 and that no one ever seemed to have heard of.

@LiberalLibrarian @Rustbelt_Dem The CDU head who just tried to greenlight local cooperation with the AfD might lend some support to that notion... but the reaction he got suggests otherwise.

@LiberalLibrarian @Rustbelt_Dem Even Shirer, who was so untrusting of the Germans that he vehemently opposed reunification and predicted a new Nazi state, was taken in by Speer.

@Rustbelt_Dem @LiberalLibrarian Sauckel was executed for using the slave laborers Speer supplied. The judges had that information. But Sauckel was a slimy little rat, and Speer played up his contrition act. It worked. He won over the judges in a way Sauckel couldn't.

@Rustbelt_Dem @LiberalLibrarian Yes, that's true.

Some people are still taken in by Speer's "man of conscience" act. He should have been executed at Nuremberg for the slave labor program.

@LiberalLibrarian I don't think he was ever mentioned in the Amazon Man in the High Castle series... a missed opportunity.

They did have J Edgar Hoover as head of the American Gestapo, which was spot on... exactly what he would have done in a Nazi conquest.

@LiberalLibrarian @Rustbelt_Dem He did change a great deal by the late '60s. Some of that was consciously tactical. But I think a good deal was real.

@LiberalLibrarian it could easily be something that happened earlier and took time to show.