I've noticed many times that hurricanes often make landfall slightly weaker than the predictions said.
With Idalia it was the opposite. Not only were the dire Cat 3 predictions accurate, it was *barely* short of Cat 4 when it made landfall (125 mph; Cat 4 starts at 130).
That's what happens when a storm moves over bathwater-temperature Gulf waters.
@phase2 I'm unfamiliar with that effect. The argument, I take it, being that it weakens variations in depth and temperature?
@RationalLeft Also what happens when the underwater landscape has been dredged to hell and back for offshore drilling operations. There are no more speed bumps left in the gulf.