@Helical_Code I think it's extremely unlikely there will be a default... though there will be high drama and stupid R brinksmanship about it, as always.

But there are clear majorities in both houses that don't want a default. That was why Fitzpatrick, who voted for Kevin, also *publicly* warned him about discharge petitions to bypass him and the MAGAs, if necessary. I think he chiefly had default and Ukraine aid in mind when he said that.