Christian Caryl in WaPo on Putin's War...
You will probably succeed in scoring military victories through the sheer force of superior numbers, but you will be able to stay in Ukraine only by bayonet — and that means you won’t be able to stay for long. It could be that you understand that you have neither the forces nor the will to maintain a long-term occupation of the country — but even if you try to terrorize Ukrainians ...
into accepting a pro-Russian leader as your proxy, that effort will not endure, either. Ukrainians have been through that before. They won’t be willing to go back.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/24/why-putin-will-lose-his-war-on-ukraine/