Catherine Rampell in WaPo on wishing and hoping...
Improperly managed expectations can lead to fewer adaptive measures and thus greater spread of illness. A new working paper based on recent surveys in Italy found that people are less likely to comply with social distancing and isolation orders if those mandates are extended longer than initially expected.
That is: If the government tells people stay-at-home measures will be lifted by Easter and they’re not, compliance will be worse than if the government had given a more conservative time frame.
Public officials could start by offering greater transparency about what they know, what they expect and the possible range of outcomes.
Second, rather than setting arbitrary deadlines for when the economy will “reopen” or making definitive predictions about unproven treatments, ...
explain what benchmarks for success would look like.
Finally: Start developing — and communicating — some damn contingency plans.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/we-dont-need-happy-talk-better-managed-expectations-could-result-in-better-outcomes/2020/04/06/f35f96cc-7849-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html