Today's news brief for #OnlySky involved wading through a lot of contested military intel, especially for Armenia and Azerbaijan, but also for Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. I came in thinking I knew the half of it. I did not!
But that's why it's always important to check initial assumptions at the door. My key takeaways? Civilians will always suffer most. And yet, the global response is also telling: something is shifting in power arrangements here. A region to be watched.
https://onlysky.media/mclark/armenia-azerbaijan-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-the-other-eurasian-wars/
@AkomoCombine I linked at the very end to a related issue, which is that Europe is trying to strengthen its energy-import relationship with Azerbaijan, to deflect from over-reliance on Russia. This... is another hugely complicating factor. The only reason I didn't put it higher in the news brief, or go into greater detail about it, is that I didn't want the issue to become "these regions are brutally attacking each other... and that might hurt gas prices!" But yes - there's a LOT to unpack here.
"But Azerbaijan is not part of CSTO, and even though it retains strong ties to Russia, they weren’t enough to keep the last negotiated ceasefire (which saw 2,000 Russian troops installed to keep the peace) from breaking down. Azerbaijan’s ally is Turkey, a NATO country that strained the Western alliance with its actions in the region."
This is where it gets complicated.
And we cant take our eyes off Turkey here.
@AkomoCombine Exactly! 👌 What a mess of a world, eh?
@MLClark Well at least my coffee tastes good- its always the little things
@AkomoCombine I think you've just reminded me what I need to do for myself next! 😊 ☕
@MLClark
This will be a common theme as big-brother Russia gets neutered by the Ukraine failure.
@jurban Exactly right. Very interesting to see how the US is inserting itself overtly now in some of these messy dynamics. I have zero interest in making predictions, but there's certainly room for a great many arrangements to change in the fallout of this/these wars.
Curious times indeed!
@MLClark
There is a subordinate theme across a few international conflicts: Separated regions.
The land bridge between Armenia and that enclave was one source of recent tensions.
West Bank and Gaza relative to Israel.
Pakistan and Bangladesh relative to India.
West Berlin and West Germany relative to East Germany.
Thought experiment: How would tensions be/have been reduced if there was an unencumbered transit between the separated regions? What if it was a raised highway or a tunnel?
@jurban Now this kind of comment is the CoSo difference in a nutshell. 👌 Just popping into a zoom meeting right now, but absolutely: hard borders always become sites of violence. Easing the pressure comes in many forms - but it *must* be eased if we value human life. Cheers for now! (And thank you! *Great* thought experiment!)
@MLClark Agreed on keeping tabs there.
I know nothing about the region other than MSM.
Its why im here , to find out without the spin