So I have thoughts, but I know enough to know I'm not as well schooled as others (though that doesn't discount my opinion).
Why did Hamas do this NOW?
(Pinging @Render specifically, though you have no obligation to drop knowledge bombs, you're just awfully convenient and have insight).
For sake of argument, I'm going to assume Iran played a heavy part in advising and arming Hamas because... DUH.
...more
@Render I've heard a few theories:
1. Shake things up, take more power from the Palestinian Authority.
2. Surprise military might would weaken the global view of Israel's military capability. Allow other countries critical of Israel to feel a little moew brazen.
3. Think that by taking hostages they could force release of some of their captured members.
...more
4. Iran wants to throw a monkey wrench into Saudi/Israeli peace talks.
5. They were sort of stalled out on any movement. We had a right-wing nationalist surge in Israel in the last few years and they knew the fight was going to happen sooner or later.
@Render I'm sort of a #4 person... #3 seems a little like they didn't really read the room. #1 would sound good but my understanding is that the PA is sort of in name only. #5... betting against a relatively militarized Israel is about as good as getting into a land war in Asia. #2... maybe? I dunno.
@Render @AI78 Allow me to put my tinfoil hat on for a moment:
- after the deal Biden brokered with Iran to exchange hostages for access to their frozen assets, Iran then lending strength to a Hamas strike on Israel weakens Biden's political position.
- potential long term conflict in the middle east can lead to higher energy prices, also weakening Biden and Democrats' 2024 prospects.
- worldwide support for Israel comes out of assets currently begin sent to Ukraine
3 wins for Putin.
It's a little tin-foil-hatty, but the implication you make, if true, would weaken Biden's position. That would make Trump's campaign stronger leading to a regime revert that would be less likely to work with Iran on a road to peace.
On the flipside the colossal shitshow that would occur after that would be a great opportunity to capitalize on the relative incompetence of the leadership. Likewise less hostile towards Russia who has already partnered with Iran.
Confusing.
@Fellixe @Render
ANOTHER thought I was just cursed with was that our ex-Prez gave Putin information (likely!). Putin is buddy-buddy with Iran. Iran is buddy-buddy with Hamas.
And if that information was Israel's capabilities and weaknesses?
Fuck me, I'm going down the tinfoil-coated rabbit hole.