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Mmwahahahaha
Look at the price of the REP24_WTA contract following that debate. That's 26 cents on the dollar.
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/iem_market_info/2024-u-s-presidential-winner-takes-all-market/
@TrueBloodNet The REP24_WTA contract is worth $1 if Trump wins the popular vote, $0 otherwise.
The latest value of the contract in cents can be read as the probability of the outcome. So the market thinks there's only a 26% chance Trump will win the popular vote.
Electoral college is another matter.
@stuartblair a what?