I knew there was a good reason for going to sleep when I did.
So the Chef goes into exile in Belarus.
His men either get folded into the MoD (which was Putin's plan all along), or get amnesty for their march on Moscow (there is no such thing as amnesty in Russia).
The Chechens get to avoid combat, again.
A lot of fuel, ammo, and combat vehicles get removed from Ukraine.
The Russian air force loses about a dozen aircraft (and crews), at least 2 of which are irreplaceable.
...
Putin knew this was coming, but thought that his behind the scenes chess moves would deter the Chef from actually doing it.
The Chef expected a lot more Russian troops to rally to his side. Mostly from the Russian airborne. But Putin/MoD shoved the rebuilt ABN units deep into the front line at Kremmina, making them unavailable to the Chef.
Does the Chef get to keep his overseas empire?
How badly are Russian Southern front logistics damaged?
Russian 217th Airborne regiment from 98th ABN division is the only Russian ABN unit that publicly rallied to the Chef's side.
But 217th is literally at the tip of the spear north of the Kreminna forest. There was no way they were actually going to join Wagner's march. Not with 90th Guards Tank Division sitting behind them.
That's when I knew it was time to get some sleep.
...
It's very possible that Wagner could have marched into Moscow. There wasn't a lot of combat capable Russian units between them and the city limits.
It's also likely that they could have taken the city and held it.
But once they halted and lost momentum the march was over.
We (and the Ukrainians) now know that the Russian army in Ukraine is a thin and brittle shell, with almost nothing behind them.
If nothing else this confirms what I and a few others have been saying about the Russian army. Everything that they have that can still fight is already in Ukraine. The cupboard at home is bare.
@Render This last 24 hours has been *really* bloody confusing. One moment Putin is on his arse, then he isn't, or is he?
@stueytheround it's easy for me to fall into the trap of wanting/expecting instant analysis. This situation is so complex it could take months to unwind and then further months to understand it.
@killingfloorman Welp. It wasn't a coup. It was a mutiny.
I know, subtle distinction there.
Nobody has ever gotten off scot-free for screwing with Putin in Putin's world. That isn't going to change anytime soon, unless he dies.
@Render shocked that Putin might not care about how the front line troops are being treated. SHOCKED I tell ya 🤣
@killingfloorman Yeah, that was one of the few consistencies in his statements.
There is an old Russian tradition of "appealing to the Tsar".
In which Russians think that the Tsar must not know how his officers/leaders are treating the troops/serfs and so a personal appeal to him directly will fix the problem.
But usually the Tsar is well aware of how his officers treat the troops, and doesn't care.
@stueytheround