This map is 48hrs old. It was 24hrs out of date when it was posted.
All units mentioned here are brigades...
Start with the green (Ukr) units marked 4th Tank and 17th Tank. Russian units opposite of them look numerous, but they're not. They're a hollow shell.
That's where the break through will take place. 4th and 17th tank will have 92nd and 93rd mech, 46th Air Assault, 10th Mountain, and 72nd mech with or right behind them.
...
@jurban 25th Motor Rifle is back inside of Russia and like the rest of 6th CAA no longer fit for combat. Only 138th Motor Rifle from 6th CAA remains inside of Ukraine and it too is badly damaged.
It's a calculated risk by Ukraine, but it is well calculated and they're reasonably certain that 3 territorial brigades will suffice to hold the northern end of the front while their maneuver brigades do their work.
@Render
Wouldn't it make sense for the 93rd to head north and begin surrounding the northern bulge? That would force them south for more consolidation. ...unless there are fresh reinforcements within Russian territory that will come in from the north.
Or are they staying back in case the tide turns west?
@jurban 92nd and 93rd Mech will almost certainly be part of the counter offensive. There are no Russian units inside of Ukraine north of Kharkiv.
93rd is no longer in the position seen on that map, it's south of there and between 17th Tank and 4th Tank. All four of those Ukr brigades and the Ukr 46th Air Assault brigade are now opposite of the Russian 106th ABN's two BTG's. Ukrainian 10th Mountain brigade and 72nd mech brigade are now where the 46th is shown on that map.
@Render
Your maps are fantastic. And your insight on the conditions of the units is a critical factor to consider.
Humble suggestion: a metric/dimension that shows the war-readiness level of these units. That would improve the intuition on the amature analyst (aka, me).
BTW, someday it would be awesome to animate these maps while showing how each side is degraded.
@jurban I'm afraid that unit degradation is something that I keep in my head.
The maps that I'm using are courtesy of Jomini of the West and Henry Schlottman.
Henry does have a time lapse on his site.
@Render
Excellent. I'm now following Henry on the bird site.
@jurban 116th Territorial Defense (TD) brigade has already moved into the line between 117th TD and 113th TD. The Russian units north and northwest of them that are visible on the map are broken beyond repair. 200th is a Naval Infantry brigade, it has no vehicles remaining and no reinforcement troops coming. 26th tank regiment and 437th Motor Rifle are the remains of 2/3rds of 47th Guards Tank Division. The other 1/3rd of the 47th Guards Tank Div is in the SW corner of the Bulge.
...