This map is 48hrs old. It was 24hrs out of date when it was posted.
All units mentioned here are brigades...
Start with the green (Ukr) units marked 4th Tank and 17th Tank. Russian units opposite of them look numerous, but they're not. They're a hollow shell.
That's where the break through will take place. 4th and 17th tank will have 92nd and 93rd mech, 46th Air Assault, 10th Mountain, and 72nd mech with or right behind them.
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@Render
So, the Ukr 113 TD is expected to keep all the Russian assets north of it from executing a southerly flank against the 4th and 17th tank units? I think the 46th and 93rd need to reinforce pretty quickly. Maybe they are already in place?
@jurban 116th Territorial Defense (TD) brigade has already moved into the line between 117th TD and 113th TD. The Russian units north and northwest of them that are visible on the map are broken beyond repair. 200th is a Naval Infantry brigade, it has no vehicles remaining and no reinforcement troops coming. 26th tank regiment and 437th Motor Rifle are the remains of 2/3rds of 47th Guards Tank Division. The other 1/3rd of the 47th Guards Tank Div is in the SW corner of the Bulge.
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@jurban 25th Motor Rifle is back inside of Russia and like the rest of 6th CAA no longer fit for combat. Only 138th Motor Rifle from 6th CAA remains inside of Ukraine and it too is badly damaged.
It's a calculated risk by Ukraine, but it is well calculated and they're reasonably certain that 3 territorial brigades will suffice to hold the northern end of the front while their maneuver brigades do their work.
@Render
Your maps are fantastic. And your insight on the conditions of the units is a critical factor to consider.
Humble suggestion: a metric/dimension that shows the war-readiness level of these units. That would improve the intuition on the amature analyst (aka, me).
BTW, someday it would be awesome to animate these maps while showing how each side is degraded.
@Render
Excellent. I'm now following Henry on the bird site.
@jurban I'm afraid that unit degradation is something that I keep in my head.
The maps that I'm using are courtesy of Jomini of the West and Henry Schlottman.
Henry does have a time lapse on his site.
https://www.uawardata.com/