Max Kennerly:
nate silver with more of his trademark data-based quantitative bayesian analysis
To Silver, size matters.
I’m not sure why any sane person would watch a debate with the sound off.
That makes no sense as the subtitles were awful. Poor Partner had to listen to it blasting the house.
they said the same sort of things about the Nixon/Kennedy debate..
How the Kennedy-Nixon debate changed the world of politics
https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/the-debate-that-changed-the-world-of-politics
That’s true. People DO say that.
The reality is that it didn’t.
"Nixon’s loss of support proved marginal. According to the Gallup Organization, Nixon held a 47 to 46 percent lead over Kennedy the week before the debate; Kennedy had a three-percentage point advantage the week after.”
Within statistical error.
The reality is that debates really change little.
https://www.historynewsnetwork.org/article/did-the-1960-presidential-debates-really-matter
We were just talking at lunch about the polls and how nobody we knows answers their phones to an unknown number any more.. So who is it they are talking to?
@tgraph52 @Bix
Now, granted, I’m using a biased source, but the reality is that Gallup at the time was using phones that didn’t have caller ID.
The polls then were far more accurate than they are today.