#Politics Warning, random screed in which I invoke my Poli Sci degree and personal experience with presidential elections ...
In 1991-1992 I worked on a campaign for a fringe Democratic presidential candidate. Spoiler, he didn't win.
For all the fuss about RFK Jr., Jill Stein, Dean Phillips, etc. challenging #Biden, I wanted to point out a few basic realities.
Each of the 50 states has its own unique rules for qualifying for the ballot ... (1/x)
#Politics Not just in the primaries, but also in the general election.
If you're not part of the party's "establishment," it is really tough to qualify for the primary ballot if you don't know what you're doing. Dean Phillips is a non-issue unless he has boots on the ground already in NH, SC, the Super Tuesday states, etc.
Caucuses are even tougher, because you need to turn out people willing to go to a caucus to vote for you. If you don't have a local organization, you lose. (2/x)
#Politics So bottom line, unless I see some evidence that these supposed "independents" or a No Labels candidate have a competent organization already working now to qualify their candidates for the ballot, it's much ado about nothing.
Once RFK Jr. said he wasn't going to challenge #Biden in the primary, that's when I knew he's toast. There's no evidence he has the organization to qualify for the ballot. The rest of the Kennedy family has renounced him. (4/x)
#Politics I'd be more worried about the Green candidate as the most likely spoiler. The Libertarian Party knows what they're doing too, they're just repulsive to most of us. Maybe RFK Jr. washes up over there.
Anyone else, e.g. No Labels, be skeptical until you hear they're registered as a legit political party in your state, and have an official candidate.
Okay, end of political screed. You can have your life back. 😉 (5/5)
@WordsmithFL but isn’t the scary thing about No Labels that it’s a bunch of rich Repubs that can supposedly spend big bucks to get these bozos on the ballot in swing states?
@AmserJ That's the rumor, but so far I haven't seen anyone who can run in a swing state that would pull more votes from Biden than from Trump. All the polling suggests that RFK Jr., Manchin, etc. would pull more Trump votes.
There's no Ralph Nader like 2000, a recognizable lefty populist. Jill Stein is yesterday's news, and she was only an impact in 2016 because of Hillary's "deplorables" comment along with the FBI reopening the emails investigation at the last minute.
@joycereynoldsward Sorry, I don't understand. 🤔
@WordsmithFL Jerry Brown.
@joycereynoldsward Ah, fringier than that!
Larry Agran was the former mayor of Irvine, CA. I did political consulting for him. He was somewhat well-known nationallly at the local level for implementing progressive initiatives that eventually led to his defeat in 1990.
George McGovern asked Larry to run his 1992 presidential campaign. We were setting up to do that when George decided to drop out. Larry decided to run himself.
Here's a highlight reel. (1/2)
@joycereynoldsward Long story, but basically the DNC decided early to go with Clinton and started forcing out other candidates. At first, Agran was included in events with the other candidates, then the DNC dropped him from the roster.
Larry almost got arrested in NH for trying to join one debate. He got arrested and beaten by NYPD for trying the same trick.
I wrote a paper about it for New Political Science. You can download the PDF here. (2/2)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IC6MWlnsS00wazaJoOcPJAHP-ffuyZep/view
@joycereynoldsward Anyway, in the context of the earlier discussion, I recall researching for him the eligibility rules for the ballot in each state. We filed lawsuits in a few places; Florida issued a weird ruling, saying that the party decides who it wants as a candidate, not the voters! If the FL Democratic Party doesn't want a candidate on the ballot, s/he's off. An odd precedent.
Each state has its own rules. That's why I say it's really hard for someone like RFK Jr. to qualify.
@WordsmithFL Ah. I worked on Jerry Brown's Oregon campaign--the Portland office manager and volunteer coordinator.
Hoo boy did I see some *interesting* anti-Clinton people...some of the same ilk that popped up in 2016.
@joycereynoldsward We were at the DNC convention in L.A. in September 1991. The candidates were going around to various rooms speaking to the caucuses.
Most of the candidates were by themselves, or with a spouse, or an aide.
Clinton swept in with Hillary, an entourage with walkie-talkies, camcorders recording his every move, etc.
I thought, "There's the nominee. He's the only one who knows what he's doing."
#Politics In the November 2024 general election, again each state has its own rules to qualify for the ballot. That means you need to have fifty organizations figuring out how to do it, if you're not the D or R candidate.
If you're the Green candidate, e.g. Jill Stein, they know what they're doing. But RFK Jr. or someone else like Joe Manchin running as an independent? It's almost impossible unless you have a lot of money, e.g. Perot. (3/x)