#Politics Warning, random screed in which I invoke my Poli Sci degree and personal experience with presidential elections ...
In 1991-1992 I worked on a campaign for a fringe Democratic presidential candidate. Spoiler, he didn't win.
For all the fuss about RFK Jr., Jill Stein, Dean Phillips, etc. challenging #Biden, I wanted to point out a few basic realities.
Each of the 50 states has its own unique rules for qualifying for the ballot ... (1/x)
#Politics Not just in the primaries, but also in the general election.
If you're not part of the party's "establishment," it is really tough to qualify for the primary ballot if you don't know what you're doing. Dean Phillips is a non-issue unless he has boots on the ground already in NH, SC, the Super Tuesday states, etc.
Caucuses are even tougher, because you need to turn out people willing to go to a caucus to vote for you. If you don't have a local organization, you lose. (2/x)
#Politics In the November 2024 general election, again each state has its own rules to qualify for the ballot. That means you need to have fifty organizations figuring out how to do it, if you're not the D or R candidate.
If you're the Green candidate, e.g. Jill Stein, they know what they're doing. But RFK Jr. or someone else like Joe Manchin running as an independent? It's almost impossible unless you have a lot of money, e.g. Perot. (3/x)
#Politics So bottom line, unless I see some evidence that these supposed "independents" or a No Labels candidate have a competent organization already working now to qualify their candidates for the ballot, it's much ado about nothing.
Once RFK Jr. said he wasn't going to challenge #Biden in the primary, that's when I knew he's toast. There's no evidence he has the organization to qualify for the ballot. The rest of the Kennedy family has renounced him. (4/x)
@WordsmithFL but isn’t the scary thing about No Labels that it’s a bunch of rich Repubs that can supposedly spend big bucks to get these bozos on the ballot in swing states?
@AmserJ That's the rumor, but so far I haven't seen anyone who can run in a swing state that would pull more votes from Biden than from Trump. All the polling suggests that RFK Jr., Manchin, etc. would pull more Trump votes.
There's no Ralph Nader like 2000, a recognizable lefty populist. Jill Stein is yesterday's news, and she was only an impact in 2016 because of Hillary's "deplorables" comment along with the FBI reopening the emails investigation at the last minute.
#Politics I'd be more worried about the Green candidate as the most likely spoiler. The Libertarian Party knows what they're doing too, they're just repulsive to most of us. Maybe RFK Jr. washes up over there.
Anyone else, e.g. No Labels, be skeptical until you hear they're registered as a legit political party in your state, and have an official candidate.
Okay, end of political screed. You can have your life back. 😉 (5/5)