NHC monitoring two regions for this weekend into early next week.
Invest #94L near ABC islands / Venezuela looked more robust today, not so much this evening.
Area near West Africa some models want to develop before reaching Caribbean next week. Dry SAL riding just North of it though.
25Jun2024
@WeatherSources Can't believe it's STILL days away from July, and I'm watching a wave with development potential headed straight for Barbados. A wave bring much needed rain we welcome... a wave which could develop into trouble, not so much.
@Pat_Walrond Yep, not often one develops this area for June!
@Pat_Walrond Looks like models now say it may find a favorable pocket to develop in this weekend as approaches the Eastern Caribbean to start the week. NHC with high 70% development chance as of Thursday AM.
@WeatherSources
when last have you seen a 70% chance so far from the islands? Trying hard to stay calm and unflurried in the face of that.
@Pat_Walrond More later in the summer typically. We’ll see what new info the day may bring.
@WeatherSources And the thing is, even if you see a disturbance in that area in July or early August, it usually promises 0-10% of development over a few days. This one is speculating a 30% chance of development over 7 days. Probably won't happen, but still, it's disconcerting.